An Analysis of The Role of Industrial Structure within Macro-econometric Models in Taiwan
Date Issued
2012
Date
2012
Author(s)
Huang, Ding-En
Abstract
This is a study conducted to explore the role of industrial structure to macroeconomic environment in Taiwan. Initially, by reviewing relevant papers about ways to measure industrial structure、industry and labor market、unemployment rate and economic growth and originating from many research with macro-econometric model, I get a basic idea to establish the model for this topic.
While building the macro-econometric model, it is required to divide the economy into many sectors and markets. Linkage among the variables will be connected through the setup of the equation or the function. These linkages can help the model to make a simulation of the way real economy circulates, and this macro-economy will be much well-working just as the structure of the model’s equations becomes complete. To examine the accuracy that model works, it needs to take a look on the prediction of in-sample and out-sample with some criterions.
After checking the ability the model works, this study starts to do scenario analysis on this model. First, the fertility rate in Taiwan rises due to government’s promotion of family planning policy, and it aims support for population growth rate.. Second, world oil price increases steadily in following years. Finally, the soft landing of China affects Taiwan. These three cases are highly expected to meet in future. By doing the scenario analysis, it may provide some help to have more comprehension about Taiwan economy’s prospect.
Subjects
Macro-econometrric model
scenario analysis
industrial structure
world oil price
population growth rate
SDGs
Type
thesis
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