Time-to-Event Estimates of the Prevalence of Active Heroin Users in Taipei City
Date Issued
2004
Date
2004
Author(s)
Pan, Chun-Hung
DOI
zh-TW
Abstract
Objective: This study employs the time-to-event method and the drug-using histories of heroin detoxification patients to estimate the prevalence of active heroin use in Taipei in year 2001 and 2002.
Method: Subjects were inpatients with heroin use from the detoxification units of the Taipei City Psychiatric Center, which was the core hospital responsible for the substance abuse treatment in the southern area of Taipei City. Treatment histories including the duration of heroin use and the total number of past admissions in public detoxification facilities were used to estimate the annual admission rate of heroin users. The size of the heroin-using population and the corresponding prevalence in year 2001and 2002 were then estimated.
Results: There were 181 and 256 admissions for heroin detoxification in year 2001 and 2002, respectively. The estimated annual admission rates of heroin detoxification were 0.086 (95% C.I. = 0.068-0.104) in 2001 and 0.124 (95% C.I. = 0.097-0.150) in 2002, while the estimated numbers of heroin users in the catchment area were 2103 (95% C.I. = 1561-2645) in 2001 and 2071 (95% C.I. = 1664-2478) in 2002. Hence the estimated prevalence of heroin use among residents aged 15-64 years in Taipei were 0.227% (95% C.I. = 0.168-0.285%) in 2001 and 0.223% (95% C.I. = 0.179-0.267%) in 2002. Sensitivity analyses further revealed that the history of total admission number might have more influence upon the prevalence estimate than the duration of heroin use or population size.
Conclusion: This study demonstrates that the time to event method is a feasible and practical one to estimate the size of active heroin-using population and the corresponding prevalence if the detailed information about heroin use and treatment can be obtained.
Subjects
海洛因
時間-事件發生法
盛行率
流行病學
heroin
time-to-event method
prevalence
epidemiology
SDGs
Type
thesis
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