https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/112652
標題: | AGE-PERIOD-COHORT ANALYSIS OF PANCREATIC CANCER MORTALITY IN TAIWAN, 1971-1986 | 作者: | LEE, WEN-CHUNG | 關鍵字: | MORTALITY TREND;AGE-PERIOD-COHORT MODEL;PANCREATIC CANCER | 公開日期: | 1990 | 卷: | v.19 | 起(迄)頁: | 839-847 | 來源出版物: | INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY | 摘要: | Interest has recently emerged about the increasing trend of pancreatic cancer mortality in Taiwan, particularly in the elderly. The mortality data of pancreatic cancer over the period 1971-1986 for males and females aged 40-84 in Taiwan were analysed using a log-linear Poisson model to examine the effects of age, calendar period of death, and birth cohort. This age-period-cohort model provides a summary guide for the reading and interpretation of cancer mortality trends. Age is the strongest factor in predicting pancreatic cancer mortality according to the models; the oldest age group-80-84 years old has 14.5 times the risk of the youngest age group 40-44. The cohort effect is also of particular interest because the generation at greatest risk for pancreatic cancer in both sexes, is the one born between 1917 and 1926, and a declining trend is observed thereafter for more recent cohorts. Parameters of the period factor show no observable trend before 1975, followed by a significantly increasing risk in the subsequent time period. However, the drop of pancreatic cancer mortality over all age groups between 1985-86 is puzzing and further study to monitor the secular trends in the following years is warranted.#B0290002 |
URI: | http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/82075 |
顯示於: | 流行病學與預防醫學研究所 |
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