https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/162011
標題: | 全流域即時動態洪水預報模式之研發與應用-以淡水河為例─總計畫暨子計畫:全流域河川洪水位即時動態模擬模式之研發(I) | 作者: | 蔡丁貴 | 關鍵字: | 複合-複雜渠道系統;洪水預報;動態模擬;現時預報;多方式特徵法;compound-complex channel system;flood forecasting;real-time simulation model;forecast simulation model;multimode method of characteristic | 公開日期: | 2005 | 出版社: | 臺北市:國立臺灣大學水工試驗所 | 摘要: | 為符合洪水預報需求,本研究目的為研發一套準確、可靠,並且模擬範圍可涵括全流域之河川洪水位即時動態模擬模式,俾準確地模擬洪水量在河川之運移情況,現時預報各河段未來適當時間長度之洪水位等相關訊息,提供洪水預報及淹水預警利用。 本研究由明渠不恆定流理論,配合多渠道匯流點質量守恆與能量守恆方程式,可依河系幾何形狀建置全流域河川水理計算模式。模式採用第二類型特徵線數值顯性解法直接求解各斷面水位及流速兩變數;模式各河段匯流點初值設定與上、下游邊界值皆以實際觀測水位為輸入條件。另外本研究將水流阻力係數視為水深之函數,模式可自動依計算水位適當調整各河段之水流阻力係數,方便適用於颱洪事件時低水位及高水位不同阻力係數間之變化。 本研究先完成研究區域內各年水文與地文資料蒐集,並校核分析該觀測資料之正確性,再利用平時觀測水位與颱洪事件之洪水位模擬來進行水流阻力係數率定,同時以第十河川局全潮測量之水位與流量資料來瞭解模式流量計算之準確性及合理性。另外為掌握基隆河颱洪事件整個洪水位之變化歷線,另考慮其支流逕流量對模式計算水位演算之影響。本模式利用淡水河河系所發生的幾個颱洪事件,如納坦颱洪與海馬颱洪(含911 豪雨事件),證實模式之準確性及實用性。 The purpose of this research project is to develop an accurate and reliable basin-wide instant flood simulation model that can be used to accurately simulate the flood movement in a compound-complex channel system. The model is capable of forecasting water-surface elevations for all reaches to an appropriate future time level based upon the requirements generally stipulated by flood forecasting agencies and to provide such information for the use as flood and inundation warnings. The project applies the unsteady flow theory and the associated governing equations to develop the basin-wide river hydraulic model according to geometric shapes and channel configurations of the river system. The equations are first transformed to a set of characteristic equations, and are then numerically solved by the multimode method of characteristic of the second kind (MMOC-Ⅱ), through which the water surface elevations and flow rates at all reaches are obtained. The upstream and downstream boundary conditions of the model are recorded water surface elevations according to the requirements by the flood forecasting. The parameters of the model, i.e., the Manning’s roughness coefficients at all reaches, are assumed to be functions of water depth. The model system had seen its successful applications to several typhoons and floods that took place in the Tamsui River Basin, such as Nock-ten and Haima. These applications have amply proved the accuracy and practicality of the model. |
URI: | http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/9941 | 其他識別: | 932625Z002015 | Rights: | 國立臺灣大學水工試驗所 |
顯示於: | 生農、工學院附設水工試驗所 |
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932625Z002015.pdf | 2.32 MB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
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