2004年台灣股市投資人屬性及選股邏輯之研究

Abstract

The present essay about investor behavior on Taiwan Stock Market concentrates on the surveys conducted during 1988-1989. Since then, there were relatively few researches on investor behavior. In the past, individual investors took greater proportion of trading amount on Taiwan Stock Market. Lately, however, institutional investors become having more impact on stock trading, and the structure of the stock market changes with the trend. Then, what will the logic of security selection and trading behavior of individual investors, wealthy investors and institutional investors change? What kind of new phenomenon would it be? Therefore, The research investigates further into the logic of Taiwan investors’ security selection in the 21st Century. What other factors and security selection variables would be highly regarded is also discussed.

The findings of this research are:
A. Long-term, Passive and conservative investors have strong intention to emphasize on fundamental analysis factors; while short-term, active and aggressive investors intend to emphasize on technical analysis factors.

B. Based on five categories of investor’s attributes, we divided them into 32 groups, picked up the top-three investor groups (all individual investors), which have more samples and top-two wealthy investor groups of more samples, tried to compare those data with the population. We find that different investor types act differently. Compared to the population, in addition, ”the experienced, long-term, active, conservative and wealthy investor type” and “the experienced, short-term, active, aggressive and wealthy investor type” show greater differences.

C. We pick out five main variables that affect the logic of security selection, following “C-3: stocks recommended by financial magazines”, “A-13: The company’s profitability ratios, like EPS, ROE, etc. “, “B-16: The technical indicators, such as KD, RSI, MACD”, “A-12: The company’s PE and PB ratio”, “C-4: stocks recommended by financial programs”. The grades of A-12 and C-4 would be changed according to the weighted-average method. From the findings, we conclude that “Media” show great influence on Taiwan investors’ security selection.

D. As to individual characteristics variables, it showed that age, marital status and number of children have effects on the logic of security selection, however, there is no sufficient evidence to show that sex, profession and geographical location will influence the logic of security selection.

Futures, and other derivatives investors pay more attention to technical analysis factors rather than fundamental analysis ones. By chi-square goodness of fit test, we find that most of these investors are experienced, shot-term, active and aggressive. And those investors who follow institutional investment strategies are relatively short-term and aggressive on the investment attitude; the difference spread is about 10%.