Foot-and-mouth disease entrance assessment model through air passenger violations
Resource
Risk Analysis,29(4),601-611.
Journal
Risk Analysis
Journal Volume
29
Journal Issue
4
Pages
601-611
Date Issued
2009
Author(s)
Abstract
This article aims to construct a risk model for the prediction of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) entrance caused by passengers who illegally carry meat products of cloven-hoofed animals through international airports into a country. The risk that meat contaminated with the FMD virus is formulated as the probabilities of FMD factor events (the prevalence of FMD), the commodity factor event (the transportation, storage, and distribution (TSD) factor event), and the passenger event. Data used for analysis were records of illegal meat product carriers from areas A and B intercepted at an international airport in Taiwan. A risk model was proposed to simulate the probability distributions in disease prevalence, probability of FMD virus existing in the meat products after meat processing, and estimation of survival of virus and time period for TSD. The probability of the passenger event was hypothesized with the odds of intercepted passengers and estimated via logistic regression. The results showed that the odds of passengers being intercepted by beagles were higher than those intercepted by Customs. By conducting Monte Carlo simulations, the probability of FMD virus risk caused by FMD factors from area A was 149 times lower than that from area B. The probability of FMD virus risk caused by the passenger event from area A was four times lower than the corresponding probability from area B. The model provides a contribution to FMD prevention and can be a reference for developing models of other diseases. ? 2009 Society for Risk Analysis.
Subjects
Air passenger; Animal products; Foot-and-mouth disease; Logistic regression
SDGs
Other Subjects
Air passenger; Animal products; Assessment models; FMD virus; Foot-and-mouth disease; International airports; Logistic regression; Meat processing; Meat products; Monte carlo simulations; Risk models; Time periods; Airports; Animals; Diseases; Logistics; Meats; Monte Carlo methods; Regression analysis; Risk assessment; Risk perception; Vehicular tunnels; Viruses; Probability distributions; air transportation; airport; disease prevalence; food processing; foot and mouth disease; health risk; meat; Monte Carlo analysis; regression analysis; risk assessment; risk factor; survival; air passenger; aircraft; airport; article; calculation; data analysis; flight; foot and mouth disease; human; infection prevention; infection risk; logistic regression analysis; meat; miscellaneous named groups; Monte Carlo method; nonhuman; prediction; prevalence; probability; risk assessment; simulation; Taiwan; virus survival; Animals; Aviation; Foot-and-Mouth Disease; Humans; Prevalence; Probability; Travel; Asia; Eurasia; Far East; Taiwan; Animalia
Type
journal article
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