https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/347534
標題: | Bayesian updating of reliability of civil infrastructure facilities based on condition-state data and fault-tree model | 作者: | Ching, J. Leu, S.-S.Ching, J. Leu, S.-S. JIAN-YE CHING |
關鍵字: | Bayesian update; Civil infrastructure; Inspection; Life-cycle analysis; Reliability | 公開日期: | 2009 | 卷: | 94 | 期: | 12 | 起(迄)頁: | 1962-1974 | 來源出版物: | Reliability Engineering and System Safety | 摘要: | This paper considers a difficult but practical circumstance of civil infrastructure management-deterioration/failure data of the infrastructure system are absent while only condition-state data of its components are available. The goal is to develop a framework for estimating time-varying reliabilities of civil infrastructure facilities under such a circumstance. A novel method of analyzing time-varying condition-state data that only reports operational/non-operational status of the components is proposed to update the reliabilities of civil infrastructure facilities. The proposed method assumes that the degradation arrivals can be modeled as a Poisson process with unknown time-varying arrival rate and damage impact and that the target system can be represented as a fault-tree model. To accommodate large uncertainties, a Bayesian algorithm is proposed, and the reliability of the infrastructure system can be quickly updated based on the condition-state data. Use of the new method is demonstrated with a real-world example of hydraulic spillway gate system. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. |
URI: | http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-69249208406&partnerID=MN8TOARS http://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/347534 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.ress.2009.07.002 | SDG/關鍵字: | Arrival rates; Bayesian algorithms; Bayesian update; Bayesian updating; Civil infrastructure; Civil infrastructures; Fault-trees; Infrastructure systems; Life-cycle analysis; Novel methods; Poisson process; Real-world; Target systems; Time varying; Bayesian networks; Life cycle; Poisson distribution; Reliability analysis; Time varying systems; Quality assurance |
顯示於: | 土木工程學系 |
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