https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/348881
標題: | Higher temperature and urbanization affect the spatial patterns of dengue fever transmission in subtropical Taiwan | 作者: | JINN GUEY LAY Wu, Pei-Chih Lay, Jinn-Guey Guo, How-Ran Lin, Chuan-Yao Lung, Shih-Chun Su, Huey-Jen |
關鍵字: | Dengue fever; Geographic information system; Population at risk; Socioeconomic factors; Spatial analysis; Temperature; Urbanization | 公開日期: | 2009 | 卷: | 407 | 期: | 7 | 起(迄)頁: | 2224-2233 | 來源出版物: | Science of the Total Environment | 摘要: | Our study conducted spatial analysis to examine how temperature and other environmental factors might affect dengue fever distributions, and to forecast areas with potential risk for dengue fever endemics with predicted climatic change in Taiwan. Geographic information system (GIS) was used to demonstrate the spatial patterns of all studied variables across 356 townships. Relationships between cumulative incidence of dengue fever, climatic and non-climatic factors were explored. Numbers of months with average temperature higher than 18 °C per year and degree of urbanization were found to be associated with increasing risk of dengue fever incidence at township level. With every 1 °C increase of monthly average temperature, the total population at risk for dengue fever transmission would increase by 1.95 times (from 3,966,173 to 7,748,267). A highly-suggested warmer trend, with a statistical model, across the Taiwan Island is predicted to result in a sizable increase in population and geographical areas at higher risk for dengue fever epidemics. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved. |
URI: | http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-60649116930&partnerID=MN8TOARS http://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/348881 |
DOI: | 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2008.11.034 | SDG/關鍵字: | Dengue fever; Population at risk; Socioeconomic factors; Spatial analysis; Urbanization; Climatology; Geographic information systems; Information systems; Population statistics; Risk analysis; climate change; dengue fever; disease incidence; disease transmission; GIS; risk factor; socioeconomic conditions; spatial analysis; temperature effect; urbanization; Bayes Theorem; Dengue; Geographic Information Systems; Geography; Humans; Incidence; Population Density; Population Surveillance; Risk Factors; Socioeconomic Factors; Taiwan; Temperature; Urbanization; Asia; Eurasia; Far East; Taiwan |
顯示於: | 地理環境資源學系 |
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