https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/365460
標題: | A spatio-temporal climate-based model of early dengue fever warning in southern Taiwan | 作者: | HWA-LUNG YU Yang, Shang-Jen Yen, Hsin-Ju Christakos, George |
關鍵字: | Bayesian maximum entropy; Dengue fever; Epidemics; Poisson; Spatio-temporal; Stochastic; Taiwan | 公開日期: | 2011 | 卷: | 25 | 期: | 4 | 起(迄)頁: | 485-494 | 來源出版物: | Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment | 摘要: | Dengue Fever (DF) has been identified by the World Health organization (WHO) as one of the most serious vector-borne infectious diseases in tropical and sub-tropical areas. During 2007, in particular, there were over 2,000 DF cases in Taiwan, which was the highest number of cases in the recorded history of Taiwan epidemics. Most DF studies have focused mainly on temporal DF patterns and its close association with climatic covariates, whereas they have understated spatial DF patterns (spatial dependence and clustering) and composite space-time effects. The present study proposes a spatio-temporal DF prediction approach based on stochastic Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) analysis. Core and site-specific knowledge bases are considered, including climate and health datasets under conditions of uncertainty, space-time dependence functions, and a Poisson regression model of climatic variables contributing to DF occurrences in southern Taiwan during 2007. The results show that the DF outbreaks in the study area are highly influenced by climatic conditions. Furthermore, the analysis can provide the required "one-week-ahead" outbreak warnings based on spatio-temporal predictions of DF distributions. Therefore, the proposed approach can provide the Taiwan Disease Control Agency with a valuable tool to timely identify, control, and even efficiently prevent DF spreading across space-time. © 2010 Springer-Verlag. |
URI: | http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-79952992312&partnerID=MN8TOARS http://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/365460 |
DOI: | 10.1007/s00477-010-0417-9 | SDG/關鍵字: | Bayesian maximum entropies; Dengue fever; Epidemics; Poisson; Spatio-temporal; Stochastic; Taiwan; Bayesian networks; Disease control; Entropy; Poisson distribution; Regression analysis; Stochastic systems; Climate models; Bayesian analysis; climate effect; climate modeling; dengue fever; disease control; disease incidence; disease spread; disease vector; epidemic; infectious disease; prediction; spatiotemporal analysis; stochasticity; Taiwan |
顯示於: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
在 IR 系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。