https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/373018
標題: | Modeling of space-time infectious disease spread under conditions of uncertainty | 作者: | Angulo, José Miguel HWA-LUNG YU Langousis, Andreas Madrid, Ana Esther Christakos, George |
關鍵字: | geostatistics; spatiotemporal data modeling; uncertainty | 公開日期: | 2012 | 卷: | 26 | 期: | 10 | 起(迄)頁: | 1751-1772 | 來源出版物: | International Journal of Geographical Information Science | 摘要: | A theoretical model for the spread of infectious diseases in a composite space-time domain is developed. The model has a general form that enables it to account for the basic mechanisms of disease distribution and to incorporate the considerable multisourced uncertainty (caused by physiographic features, disease variability, meteorological conditions, etc.). Starting from the general model formulation regarding the specification of transmission and recovery rates, as well as the population migration dynamics, several subsequent assumptions are introduced that simplify analytical tractability and practical implementation. In particular, linearization involving a deterministic functional representation for the average evolution of the fraction of susceptible individuals allows the formulation of an extended Kalman filter approach for estimation based on the time series observed at a finite set of locations. Different aspects of interest derived from the epidemic space-time model proposed, as well as the performance of the extended Kalman filter procedure, are illustrated through simulations. ? 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC. |
URI: | http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?eid=2-s2.0-84867244309&partnerID=MN8TOARS http://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/373018 |
DOI: | 10.1080/13658816.2011.648642 | SDG/關鍵字: | computer simulation; disease spread; geostatistics; infectious disease; Kalman filter; numerical model; population migration; spatiotemporal analysis; time series analysis; uncertainty analysis |
顯示於: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
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