https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/57992
標題: | 2014年新竹市長選舉研究:林智堅勝選的政治社會基礎 A Study of Hsinchu City Mayor Election:Social-Political Basis of Election Winner Lin Chih-Chien |
作者: | 余正煌 Yu, Cheng-Huang |
關鍵字: | 2014年新竹市長選舉;林智堅勝選因素;改革特質;2014年政治氛圍;二元勝算對數迴歸分析;Hsinchu City mayor election in 2014;Lin Chih-Chien victory factors;reform traits;2014 the politicalcontext;binary logit regression analysis | 公開日期: | 2016 | 摘要: | 本論文以新竹市長林智堅競選總部以「MSRC精湛民意調查顧問股份有限公司」所進行的6次民調結果,本論文先對民調結果進行簡單的統計分析,描述支持林智堅的選民分配。其次,就人口學變數與林智堅的支持度進行卡方(χ2)檢定,考驗這些變數的內部族群對林智堅的支持是否具有顯著地差異。再運用「二元勝算對數迴歸分析」建立解釋模型,以瞭解是哪些人口學變數及政治社會心理變數,顯著地影響受訪者對林智堅的支持,從而描繪出林智堅勝選的政治社會基礎。在太陽花學運後,總的來看,林智堅是以良好的政黨基礎做為勝選的根基,再輔以相當關鍵的個人特質因素,使其得以獲得勝選,分析結果看來,新竹市長林智堅的勝選並非贏得僥倖。 The thesis is according to the six polls campaign headquarters in Hsinchu mayor Lin Chih-Chien by the Master Survey & Research Co. Ltd (MSRC).The first, the thesiscarried out simple statistical analysisresults of the poll, describe Lin Chih-Chien voters support distribution. Secondly, the support of demographic variables and Lin Chih-Chien of the Chi-Square (χ2) test, a test of the internal variables of these groups support for Lin Chih-Chien to whether a significant difference. Then use “the binary logit regression analysis “to established interpretation model can understand what demographic variables and political society psychographic, significantly affects the respondents support Lin Chih-Chien, which describe thepolitical social basis ofLin Chih-Chien to win the election. After the sunflower student movement, overall, Lin Chih-Chien has a good basis for the political parties as a success of the foundation, supplemented by personal traits are critical factors that enable it to obtain the success, the results seem, Hsinchu mayor Lin Chih-Chien''s victory was not a luck win |
URI: | http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/274565 | DOI: | 10.6342/NTU201601231 | Rights: | 論文公開時間: 2018/8/2 論文使用權限: 同意有償授權(權利金給回饋本人) |
顯示於: | 國家發展研究所 |
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ntu-105-R99341051-1.pdf | 23.54 kB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
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