https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/82078
標題: | 半導體製造之資料探勘技術與知識網絡建立─子計畫一:半導體需求資料探擷與知識發掘應用於產能配置最佳化之研究(1/3) | 作者: | 陳正剛 | 公開日期: | 2003 | 出版社: | 臺北市:國立臺灣大學工業工程學研究所 | 摘要: | Results of demand planning serve as the basis of every planning activity in a demand-supply network and ultimately determine the effectiveness of manufacturing and logistic operations in the network. The uncertainty of demand signals, that are propagated and magnified over the network, becomes the crucial cause of ineffective operation plans. To manage the demand variability, appropriate demand aggregation and statistical forecasting approaches are known to be effective. This paper will use the bivariate VAR(1) time series model as a study vehicle to investigate the effects of aggregating and disaggregating two interrelated demands. Through theoretical development, we further explore effects of aggregating, forecasting and disaggregating two time series and provide guidelines to select proper demand planning approaches. A very important finding of our research is that disaggregation of a forecasted aggregated demand is not effective in most cases and should be employed only when two demand time series have similar trends and coefficients of variation. |
URI: | http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/4198 | 其他識別: | 912213E002087 | Rights: | 國立臺灣大學工業工程學研究所 |
顯示於: | 工業工程學研究所 |
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912213E002087.pdf | 207.66 kB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
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