https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/85786
標題: | 行政院國家科學委員會專題研究計畫成果報告:結合優化模式與系統模擬對水庫操作之研討(二) | 作者: | 蘇明道 | 關鍵字: | 水庫操作;序率優勢;水資源;Reservoir operation;Water supply;Stochastic dominance | 公開日期: | 1999 | 出版社: | 臺北市:國立臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學系暨研究所 | 摘要: | 水庫操作方法之優劣會大幅影響水庫 使用效率,目前台灣的水庫操作大多依據 水庫操作規線,雖然簡單便利但稍嫌保守 且缺乏彈性。本研究結合線性規畫之優化 模式及系統模擬技術,以過去的操作管理 資料為依據,求得較具彈性的操作規則來 做為水庫放水的依據。研究中先以線性規 劃建立優化模式對歷史性之記錄求其最佳 之運轉方式,而後以統計方法由優化之結 果推導出實際可用之操作法則,並利用系 統模擬的技巧與統計上的序率優勢 (Stochastic Dominance)來建立篩選及評估操作 法則之模式。計畫中以石門水庫為研討範 例,結果顯示所提出之方法確能降低水庫 操作時面臨之未確定性,提昇水資源利用 之效率。 Reservoir yield is greatly affected by the operating rule used. Most of the reservoirs in Taiwan are operated according to a set of ruling curves. Ruling curve operation is simple but rigid. It is not flexible to response to the change of input and output of the water system such as incoming stream flow or the downstream water demand. The objective of this study is to derive new operating rules for better operation of the reservoir. An optimization model was built for the target reservoir. Historical records of demand and supply were fed into the model. Operating rules were derived from the optimization results and evaluated with a simulation model based on stochastic dominance criteria. This joint use of simulation and optimization will derive rules those are flexible and efficient with no future information needed as the optimization model did. The ShiMen Dam was used as study area and the results showed that the proposed algorithm may decrease the uncertainty during reservoir operation and increase the efficiency in water resource management. |
URI: | http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/10676 | 其他識別: | 882313B002098 | Rights: | 國立臺灣大學生物環境系統工程學系暨研究所 |
顯示於: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
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882313B002098.pdf | 70.34 kB | Adobe PDF | 檢視/開啟 |
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