https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/87074
標題: | Probabilistic indoor transmission modeling for influenza (sub)type viruses | 作者: | Chen, Szu-Chich Liao, Chung-Min |
關鍵字: | Indoor transmission; Infection; Influenza; Modeling; Vaccine | 公開日期: | 2009 | 起(迄)頁: | 26-35 | 來源出版物: | Journal of Infection | 摘要: | Objectives: To use a probability based transmission modeling approach to examine the influenza risk of infection virus in indoor environments. This was based on 10 years of data gathered from influenza-like illness sentinel physician and laboratory surveillance, and experimental viral shedding data in Taiwan. Methods: We integrated sentinel physician-reported cases and positive rates of influenza A (H1N1), A (H3N2), influenza B, and respiratory syncytial virus in Taiwan using the Wells-Riley mathematical model. This model incorporates environmental factors such as room ventilation and breathing rates. We also linked vaccine match rate with related transmission estimations to predict the controllable potential using a control model characterized by basic reproduction number (R0) and proportion of asymptomatic infections (θ). Results: A quantitative framework was developed to better understand the infection risk and R0 estimates of A (H1N1), A (H3N2), and B viruses. The viral concentration in human fluid was linked successfully with quantum generation rates to estimate virus-specific infection risks. Our results revealed that A (H3N2) virus had a higher transmissibility and uncontrollable potential than the A (H1N1) and B viruses. Conclusions: Probabilistic transmission model can incorporate virus-specific data on experimental viral shedding, long-term sentinel physician and laboratory surveillance to predict virus-specific infection risks in Taiwan. ? 2009 The British Infection Society. |
URI: | http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/176047 | DOI: | 10.1016/j.jinf.2009.09.015 | SDG/關鍵字: | influenza vaccine; ambient air; article; basic reproduction number; breathing rate; disease surveillance; environmental factor; human; infection control; infection risk; influenza; influenza vaccination; Influenza virus A H1N1; Influenza virus A H3N2; Influenza virus B; mathematical model; prediction; probability; quantitative analysis; Respiratory syncytial pneumovirus; risk assessment; room ventilation; Taiwan; virus concentration; virus load; virus shedding; virus transmission; Air Microbiology; Air Pollution, Indoor; Humans; Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype; Influenza A Virus, H3N2 Subtype; Influenza B virus; Influenza, Human; Kinetics; Models, Statistical; Risk Assessment; Sentinel Surveillance |
顯示於: | 生物環境系統工程學系 |
在 IR 系統中的文件,除了特別指名其著作權條款之外,均受到著作權保護,並且保留所有的權利。