2004-10-012024-05-16https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/667456摘要：本計畫將針對颱風侵台期間，利用氣象局QPESUMS系統之雷達觀測和自動雨量站資訊（時間解析度約10分鐘，空間解析度約1公里），進行土石流危險潛勢區之雨量特性分析，除評估自動雨量站降雨資訊與雷達雨量站整合降雨資訊之差異外，並針對2004年敏督利與艾利颱風，進行南投地區土石流發生個案之雨量分析，初步評估QPESUMS整合降雨資訊運用於土石流預警之可行性，其成果將作為建立土石流發生雨量指標參考，改善目前因降雨估計誤差太大所導致的不確定性。<br> Abstract: On the purpose of getting real-time rainfall information for debris flow high potential danger area, the project used the precipitation data ( the time interval is 10 minutes, and the spatial resolution is about 1 km) that provided by CWB QPESUMS to develop the quantitative precipitation estimation and forecast (QPE/QPF) techniques during typhoon period. A preliminary study of this year, we analyze the integral rainfall dataset of typhoon Mindulle (2004) and Aere(2004), and assess the feasibility of the QPESUMS rainfall dataset to make the early waring of debris flow. The results will help to improve the precipitation estimation and to establish the rainfall index in debris flow warning.土石流定量降雨估計雷達雨量站debris flowquantitative precipitation estimationradarrain-gaugeQPESUMS