陳業寧臺灣大學:財務金融學研究所陳慈昕Chen, Tzu-HsinTzu-HsinChen2010-05-112018-07-092010-05-112018-07-092008U0001-0801200901031400http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/182692信用卡、現金卡產業在過去十年間迅速發展，在激烈的市場競爭下銀行發卡浮濫，且過度放寬授信條件。同時消費者也未能衡量自我償債能力，過度消費以至於無力償債。最後，終於在民國九十四年底爆發了嚴重的雙卡卡債風暴。 由這次的卡債風暴，本研究欲探討銀行在面對不確定性較高，但同時具有高獲利性的雙卡業務時，其經營行為與相互影響的關係。首先，本研究先探討銀行之發卡行為是否具合理性。面對不斷攀升的壞帳比率，發卡銀行是否會修正其發卡行為以避免損失不斷擴大；抑或追求短期獲利表現而繼續浮濫發卡？實證結果顯示，隨著壞帳比率的惡化，雙卡發卡銀行皆有緊縮發卡之行為。其中，信用卡發卡銀行的反應程度高於現金卡發卡銀行。由此結果本研究推論，銀行浮濫發卡之行為並非不理性地追求短期獲利佳績，而是低估了雙卡放款之風險。 其次，本研究欲探討在雙卡業務上，銀行之間交互影響的關係。雙卡在台發展歷時不長，大多數的銀行普遍缺乏專業知識與經營管理能力。故當某些銀行在雙卡業務上屢創佳績時，其他銀行欲跟進但卻缺乏資訊的情況下，便會參考其他專業程度可能較高的銀行其發卡行為，獲得資訊以降低雙卡業務經營上的不確定性。本研究以「模仿行為」與「競爭行為」來探討銀行發卡行為之間是否具有從眾效應。結果顯示，信用卡在台發展較久，發卡銀行多已累積許多經營經驗，信用卡市場也已飽和，因此銀行之間地從眾行為不明顯。在現金卡方面，則可發現過去較不著重消金業務的銀行會模仿過去消金業務比重較高的銀行之發卡銀行之發卡行為。而原先發卡存量較高、市場占有率較大的銀行，為了鞏固其在現金卡市場的地位，因此當其他發卡銀行增加發卡數量時，其也會跟著增加發卡數量。 最後，本研究欲探討什麼特性的銀行較不會過度承擔風險，在雙卡業務上的表現較為優異。結果顯示，在信用卡方面，過去放款整體績效較好的銀行、自有資本比率較高的銀行以及專業程度較高的銀行，有較好的信用卡放款表現。現金卡發卡銀行之間則沒有明顯的差異。The credit card and cash card debt crisis in the end of 2005 has given rise to a number of questions about the loans given by commercial banks to card holders. One question concerns the appropriateness of the method by which banks assessed the risks of the card business and measure their endurable exposures. This paper wants to investigate, under extremely intense competition, how banks made their decisions when they faced a new business characterized by uncertainty and profit. This paper examines banks’ behavior from three aspects. First of all, the research inspects whether banks of issue behaved rationally or not. Secondly, this paper gives empirical content to the term “herding” and tests if other banks would replicate the card issuing decisions of the banks which had developed much experience or theory in setting optimal level of debts for credit card or cash card business. In addition, this paper also observes how those banks with more professional advantages reacted to other banks’ mimics. Thirdly, this paper intends to figure out what kind of characteristics make the banks perform better. The empirical results are summarized as following：. Banks of issue did not blindly expand their card business. They adjusted their issuance policy of cards when they suspected their non-performing loan ratio of card debts increased seriously.. Herding effects did not exist among banks which issued credit cards, since the credit card business had developed for a long time in Taiwan. By contrast, banks which issued cash cards had not had enough experience and skill for risk management, so, obviously, there was a mimicking phenomenon among them.. Banks which issued credit cards and had lower generalized non-performing loan ratio, higher capital adequacy ratio, or more professional advantages had performed better than other banks did. However, there was no significant difference among banks which issue cash cards.口試委員會審定書 I謝 II文摘要 IIIbstract IV錄 V表目錄 VI一章、緒論 - 1 -一章、研究背景 - 1 -二節、研究動機與目的 - 5 -三節、研究流程與架構 - 6 -二章、雙卡基本介紹 - 7 -一節、信用卡的介紹 - 7 -二節、現金卡的介紹 - 11 -三節、雙卡的比較 - 13 -三章、文獻探討 - 14 -一節、銀行從眾行為 - 14 -二節、銀行授信品質之影響因素 - 16 -四章、研究步驟 - 18 -一節、銀行對預警指標之反應行為 - 18 -二節、銀行從眾行為 - 19 -三節、銀行特性與銀行放款品質之關係 - 23 -五章、資料分析 - 25 -一節、資料來源 - 25 -二節、資料處理 - 25 -三節、群組分類標準 - 27 -六章、實證結果 - 39 -一節、銀行對預警指標之反應行為 - 39 -二節、銀行從眾行為 - 41 -三節、銀行特性與銀行放款品質之關係 - 46 -七章、結論與建議 - 51 -一節、結論 - 51 -二節、研究限制 - 52 -考文獻 - 53 -application/pdf1172455 bytesapplication/pdfen-US雙卡從眾效應因果關係檢定逾放比資本適足率公司治理Credit cardCash cardGranger Causality TestCorporate governancethesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/182692/1/ntu-97-R95723045-1.pdf