2010-05-312024-05-15https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/664516摘要：本計劃目標分為三部分。首先，續以試割法(次樣本法)進行柳橙主產地單位產量調查與統計分析，並了解影響柳橙單位產量變異之來源。其次欲評估比較試割、全割、記錄等方法估算梨單位產量之準確度與可行性。最後是蒐集國外推定全年度均可採收之農作物(如番石榴等)單位產量之相關文獻，供為未來產量推定及統計分析工作之參考。 為達成以上年度目標，本計劃重要工作項目包含柳橙主產地單位產量調查與統計分析、 梨主產地單位產量調查及蒐集國外推定全年度均可採收之農作物(如番石榴等)單位產量之相關文獻。 計畫預期效應如下：關於柳橙單位產量調查部分，除可獲得99年度主產縣市之單位產量估值外，也可估計縣市間之變異、同縣市內各鄉鎮市間之變異、同鄉鎮市內各筆土地間之變異及各筆土地內次樣本之變異，作為未來抽樣方法設計及決定樣本大小之參考指標。梨單位產量調查部分，可獲得99年度主產縣市之單位產量估值，並透過評估比較試割、全割、訪問調查之結果，針對未來梨單位產量調查作業流程與產量估算算式提出建議。另外藉由文獻蒐集可對先進國家對全年度均可採收之農作物 (如番石榴等) 單位產量推定作業程序方法能有一系統性的了解，做為國內未來產量推定及統計分析工作之參考。 <br> Abstract: We aim to achieve three major goals in this project. First, we will continue applying crop cutting survey on estimating the yield of oranges in this year and the variance components in different levels. Second, we will compare three different methods -- crop cutting surveys, whole-plot cutting surveys, and grower-reported yield -- to estimate the yield of pears in this year. The third goal is to perform literature search for the methods of estimating the yield of crops, such as guavas, which can be harvested whole year-round. This project firstly will provide the estimates for the yields of oranges and pears in this year. While performing sampling surveys on oranges, the estimates or different variance components will provide insight into the elements that contribute the most to the sampling variability. The knowledge about the variance components will allow us to refine the sampling scheme in the future to achieve an even more accurate estimate about the yield of oranges. This project will also evaluate three different methods to estimate the yield of pears. The accuracy and variability of the estimate as well as the cost for each method will be provided. Based on the results of evaluation, we will recommend the most plausible sampling scheme and the estimator for the yield of pears. Last but not least, this project aims to sort out the information about estimating yield of crops which can be harvested year-round in other developed countries. This information will assist to develop a proper procedure to estimate yield of guava in Taiwan in the near future.作物單位產量抽樣調查經濟敏感性作物crop yieldsampling surveyeconomically sensitive crop