任立中臺灣大學：國際企業學研究所林建池Lin, Chien-ChihChien-ChihLin2007-11-282018-06-292007-11-282018-06-292004http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/60541投資人投資共同基金的目的，是藉重共同基金專業經理人管理及運作之下，可以使資金持續成長，並將增加的收益分享給所有的投資者。先前的文獻中，諸多仍著墨於以基金績效評估指標的探討，期望能夠提出某種結論能協助投資決策。但是過去的研究忽略了最重要的一點，基金是種人為操作的金融投資工具，對於個別投資人行為的異質性及動態性，做深入探討的仍然不多。因此本研究將引用財務領域中，有關投資者的擇時擇股能力，結合資料庫行銷來探討網路下單投資人行為的異質性與動態性，以區隔出本研究的線上投資人，並進一步建立共同基金之最適投資組合。 研究發現，經由擇時擇股能力模式分析，使用兩種挑選準則所挑選出的投資人，探究其未來選股策略形成的模擬基金。可以發現歷經總統大選以及全球性股災的影響，所有基金的績效走勢震盪幅度皆較以往的績效表現劇烈，而以模擬基金績效走勢震盪幅度最小。受到空頭市場的大環境影響，投資人的擇股能力也受到影響，但觀察基金的抗跌性，兩支模擬基金在研究期間當中，其績效表現可以算是相對上表現較好，證實利用擇時擇股模式結合資料庫行銷分析得到的模擬基金績效表現確實相對上比較好。The purpose of investing in the mutual fund is to gain excess profit sharing which was achieved by the professional mutual fund manager's management. Many previous studies about the mutual fund emphasized the evaluation of the mutual fund's performance indexes. They hoped they could assist in marking an investment decision. The most important point is that the mutual fund is an artificial investment tool, but it was ignored in the past researches. The overall evaluation is usually stressed in the profit research of the general finance area, but the individual investor's heterogeneity is ignored in research. Therefore, the research uses the timing and selection ability of investment decision and combines the database-marketing to investigate the online investors' heterogeneity for the segmentation of the online investors and the making the best investment portfolio. My sample result shows the smallest vibration within all mutual funds during the President election and the disaster in the global stock market. In part, because the model which I employed timing and selection ability model. Under the influence of bear stock market, I observe the anti-fallen ability pattern, and the two mutual funds have the better performance during the research period. I prove that the imitated mutual funds have the better performance by using the timing and selection ability model and database marketing.謝辭 論文摘要 Abstract 目次 .................................................i 圖次 ...............................................iii 表次 .................................................v 第一章 緒論 ........................................1 1.1 研究背景 ........................................1 1.2 研究動機 ........................................2 1.3 研究目的 ........................................4 1.4 論文架構 ........................................4 第二章 文獻探討 ........................................7 2.1 關係行銷 ........................................7 2.2 資料庫行銷 .....................................11 2.3 共同基金與投資績效評估 .........................17 2.4 網路下單介紹 ...................................24 2.5 網路券商未來展望 ...............................28 第三章 研究方法 .......................................31 3.1 研究架構 .......................................31 3.2 資料描述 .......................................33 3.3 線上投資人擇時擇股能力分析 .....................35 3.4 模擬基金之投資報酬率求取過程 ...................38 第四章 實證分析 .......................................43 4.1 投資人基本資料分析 .............................43 4.2 擇股能力與穩定性表現分析 .......................48 4.3 擇時擇股能力與穩定性表現分析 ...................56 4.4 基金投資績效評比 ...............................59 第五章 結論與建議 .....................................67 5.1 研究發現 .......................................67 5.2 策略建議 .......................................68 5.3 研究限制 .......................................70 5.4 後續發展與建議 .................................71 參考文獻 ................................................73 中文部分 ................................................73 英文部分 ................................................74 網站部分 ................................................76 附錄 ................................................79 擇股能力與穩定性表現各時段區隔圖 .......................,791061294 bytesapplication/pdfen-US資料庫行銷擇時擇股能力共同基金Database MarketingTiming and Selection Abilitythesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/60541/1/ntu-93-R91724032-1.pdf