2013-01-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/683945摘要：氣候變遷所造成的氣象變異，可能是造成傳染疾病傳播機制改變，進而導致更嚴重的疫情。本計畫登革熱為例，建立氣候變遷下傳染病時空傳播擴散預測模型。此模型預期藉由考慮影響傳染病之重要氣象因子、地理環境因子及人類社會相關因子，並分析過去病媒蚊以及登革熱病例相關資料，探討主要影響登革熱疫情之氣象因子（如溫度、降雨）、地理環境因子（如土地利用、植被）以及人類社會行為模式（如人口密度），希冀找出相關潛在因子與登革熱疫情之關係。本計畫將延續101年度所探討的登革熱影響因子空間時間分布的成果為基礎，建構氣候變遷下登革熱之傳染病預測模型，其中研究包含三個部份(1)氣候變遷下相關氣象變因收集與彙整: 收集可能氣候變遷情境下，對於研究區中的相關氣象因子之變化預測，其中包括降雨的預測以及溫度變異的討論與分析。(2)登革熱時空潛勢模型建構: 以今年研究成果為基礎，預期利用序率統計的技術或是動態系統的方法，持續發展登革熱時空間潛勢變化預測模型。(3)氣候變遷下登革熱疫情時空間潛勢預測分析: 結合氣候變遷下，各種氣象因子之可能變化預測，以及所建構的登革熱潛勢模型，探討氣候變遷下，登革熱疫情於研究區中相對於目前可能存在的變化趨勢為何。本計畫研究區將以過去登革熱主要發生區域，台南、高雄與屏東為主，來建構登革熱時空預測模型，預期可透過氣象因子的觀測或預測，找出研究區未來數週至數月內可能發生登革熱風險的空間時間分布，預期可提供相關單位立即的防疫參考。對於氣候變遷的影響評估，本計畫將利用未來氣象變數之預測，評估研究區未來短中長期登革熱發生之趨勢，以提供相關單位參考<br> Abstract: The change of meteorological conditions induced by climate change can potentially cause the change of patterns and characteristics of infectious disease epidemics. The objective of this proposal is to develop a spatiotemporal infectious disease diffusion model for dengue fever under climate change scenarios. This model expects to account for the potential influential factors for disease spread, such as meteorological factors (e.g. temperature, rainfall), environmental factors (e.g. land utilization, vegetation) and socioeconomic factors (e.g. population density). The development will be based upon our first-year results and continues to establish a climate-based dengue fever spatiotemporal infectious disease diffusion model. The target of the proposal can be divided into three parts: (1)Collection and analysis of the weather variables under climate change: the predictions of the weather variables under climate changes in the study area will be compiled and analyzed, including the indicators of the temperature and rainfalls. (2)Development of space-time dengue fever spread model: the stochastic or dynamic system model will be developed on the basis of the first-year results in order to understand and characterize the spatiotemporal patterns of dengue fever epidemics. (3)Projection of space-time dengue fever epidemic patterns under climate change scenarios: Integrating the predictions of climatic and weather variables as well as the space-time dengue fever epidemic model to investigate the projection of space-time characteristics of dengue fever epidemics under climate change scenarios.The study area is South Taiwan (i.e. Tainan, Kaohsiung and Pingtung Counties), i.e. the hotspot of dengue fever epidemics. The results are expected to show the short-term predictions and long-term projections of dengue fever epidemics in the study area and can provide as a reference for the agency.傳染病預測登革熱時空分布氣候變遷infectious disease predictiondengue feverspatiotemporal distributionclimate change