任立中2006-07-262018-06-292006-07-262018-06-292001http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/17016http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/17016/1/892416H002112.pdf雖然對國際行銷人員而言，與擴散有關之新 產品上市策略是非常重要的議題，但過去只有很少 文獻探討跨國擴散。而且，這些探討多國擴散之研 究，多半只著重於消費者耐久財或工業性技術創新 產品。因此，本研究欲將跨國擴散模型延伸應用於 新奇流行品-電影之擴散型態，探討踦國與屬性因 素，後者包括類型、卡司、上映日期、創新及模仿 效果。本研究之主要目的是應用跨國擴散整合架 構，預測台灣即將上映電影之票房潛力，藉此在新 產品進入國外市場之前，產生跨國擴散型態之預測。Although diffusion-related new product launching strategies address critical issues for international marketing managers, only a few studies have explored cross-national diffusion. Also, previously published studies on multinational diffusion have concentrated mainly on consumer durable and industrial technological innovations. Hence, this study attempts to extend the knowledge in this area by empirically capturing the diffusion patterns of motion pictures, one kind of a novelty product, in cross-national context and integrating perceived attributes, including the genre, cast and release date of the movie and a lead-lag effect into a framework. In particular, the main objective of this research is to apply the proposed integrated framework for forecasting the box-office potential of new motion pictures in Taiwan where sales data are not available. Thereby yielding some insights into the nature of the expected diffusion pattern in foreign countries prior to market entry.application/pdf157450 bytesapplication/pdfzh-TW國立臺灣大學國際企業學系暨研究所擴散模型銷售預測新產品成長Diffusion ModelSales ForecastNew Product Growth[SDGs]SDG9reporthttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/17016/1/892416H002112.pdf