2010-07-012024-05-15https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/661754摘要：目前許多研究資料皆顯示全球暖化造成病媒蚊的生態改變，因而可能擴大病媒蚊的生態版圖與加速病毒傳播速率。登革熱是台灣受到全球暖化威脅的重要傳染病，且台灣與東南亞地區的日益頻繁交通往來更加速其該疾病的境外移入風險，因此本研究以登革熱為例，進行傳播風險模擬與評估氣溫暖化與人口移動對於登革熱疫情在兩地間的交互影響。本研究發現人口流動的效果相較於溫度改變效應，對於疫情傳播的嚴重度更為敏感。加速兩地間人口流動將對於低密度人口區明顯增加其疫情高峰的病例數；而氣候暖化效果對於加速到達疫情高峰時間的效果較明顯。<br> Abstract: Many studies show that climate warming gives rise to the change of vector ecology, which may speed up the transmission of vector-borne infectious diseases. Dengue fever epidemics in Taiwan become more severe due to climate warming. In addition, intense traveling among Southeast Asian countries is also a potential risk factor which is possible to import the virus into Taiwan. Therefore, this study is attempted to applying mathematical modeling and computer simulation to figure out the interaction effects of climate warming and population movement on dengue transmission. The results show the effect of population movement is more sensitive to epidemic severity than climate warming. Increase of people movement raises the case numbers of epidemic peak while climate warming speeds up the time achieving epidemic peak.氣象暖化人口移動蟲媒傳染病登革熱電腦模擬climate warmingpopulation movementvector-borne diseasedengue fevercomputer simulation