2001-08-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/710036摘要：本計畫為“颱風伴隨強風與豪雨之觀測與預報技術發展”整合計畫之第五子計畫。計畫研究重點為針對與東北季風或鋒面環流共伴而導致台灣北部地區豪大雨的颱風個案，分析其氣候特性、路徑特徵、綜觀天氣型態與伴隨降雨分佈特徵，並透過中尺度數值模擬與模擬結果之診斷分析，探討導致北部地區豪大雨之物理機制；最後則綜合資料分析與數值模擬結果之診斷分析，歸納在不同綜觀天氣型態／颱風路徑下，導致北部地區（各流域集水區）出現豪大雨的氣象條件與預報指引。全程計畫預計三年完成，本計畫為第一年計畫。　　本年研究中，將搜集、整理因颱風與東北季風／鋒面共伴導致北部地區豪大雨之歷史個案，統計其氣候特性、颱風路徑特徵與伴隨降雨分佈；此外，亦將搜集具相似綜觀天氣型態但未伴隨出現豪雨之歷史颱風個案，進行綜觀特性之比對分析。其次，將針對象神 (2000) 和芭比絲(1998) 颱風，詳細分析衛星雲圖、雷達回波與都卜勒風場、天氣圖與探空圖特徵；此外，亦將分析逐時台灣地區地面觀測資料以瞭解區域環流分佈，並綜合分析上述觀測資料，探討導致豪大雨之可能原因。最後，將把MM5中尺度數值模式建置於預計添購之SGI伺服器上，完成模式之測試工作與初始資料<br> Abstract: This is the fifth sub-project of the mission-oriented project “ The observation and the development of forecast technique of strong winds and torrential rains associated with typhoon”. Focus of this study is on the analysis and numerical simulation of those typhoons, with northeasterly monsoon or front that caused torrential rain at the northern Taiwan. The analysis will include the climatological aspect, the tracks, the synoptic environments and the rainfall distributions associated with these typhoons. In addition, the diagnostic analysis based on the numerical simulation results will be performed to discuss the physical processes leading the torrential rain. Finally, the meteorological conditions leading to the torrential rain at the northern Taiwan, under different synoptic conditions or typhoon track patterns will be summarized after synthesizing the results of data analysis and numerical simulation. The forecasting rules for the occurrence of the torrential rain at each river basin will also be proposed. It will take three years to complete the whole project and this is the first year of the project. In this year, we will collect all the historical typhoons, with northeasterly monsoons or front that caused torrential rain at the northern Taiwan. The climatological aspect, the track patterns and the rainfall distributions associated with these typhoons will be analyzed. Those historical typhoons, with northeasterly monsoon or front that did not lead to torrential rain at the northern Taiwan will also be studied and compared. Next, careful case analysis of typhoon Xangsane (2000) and Babs (1998) will be performed. All the satellite images, the weather charts the soundings and the radar echoes and Doppler radial winds will be carefully examined. In addition, the hourly surface data will be carefully analyzed to study the regional circulation pattern. Tentative conclusions regarding the physical processes leading to the torrential rain will also be made based on the data analysis. Finally, we will install the MM5 mesoscale model on the SGI server that we plan to purchase. The model initial data setup (including the bogusing of initial vortex) and the model test runs will be conducted. We will start to simulate Xangsane after the test runs are completed successfully. However, the numerical simulations (including the sensitivity test to study the physical processes) of typhoons Xangsane and Babs as well as the diagnostic analysis using the simulated data will be completed extensively in the second years’ of the project.颱風颱風登陸豪雨數值模擬TyphoonTyphoon LandfallTorrential RainNumerical Simulation