2012-08-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/710933摘要：近年來隨著人口成長，居住於都市的人民對於生活環境與都會區空間的需求日益增高，城市的開發已逐漸擴展至其上游與周遭農用地區。然而，隨著都市發展過程，造成集水區中不透水面積增加以及土地利用狀況改變。因而常導致集水區的水文環境發生變化，加速集水區對於降雨的反應時間與增加洪峰流量的規模，使得模擬集水區降雨-逕流過程的困難度增加與降低模式模擬結果的可信度。此外，都市化導致之都市熱島效應常引發短延時極端暴雨的發生，也改變了集水區原本的水文特性。上述種種因都市化而導致的改變，均可能導致都會區大規模洪災的發生及加劇洪災的損失。因此，探討都市化作用對於都會區及其上游流域水文循環所造成之衝擊，並擬定合適之&#64038;會區防洪減災策&#63862;，實是永續防災減災研究中一個重要的課題。故本計畫擬以三年時間發展都市化影響下對都會區水文特性變化情況的量化評估方法，發展有效之降雨與逕流模擬技術，並針對兩個特性不同之集水區進行研究，以探討都市化對都會區及其上游流域中降雨特性與地表水文特性之影響。本計畫將以臺中市的旱溪流域（平原型都會區）與新北市的塔寮坑溪流域（盆地型都會區）為研究對象。 第一年研究重點為歷史事件雨量與流量資料蒐集與整理，並進行特性分析。對於與都市化相關之地文與人文社經資料亦一併蒐集與彙整。接著，依據所蒐集之水文、地文、人文社經資料進行相關性分析以訂定出可反應都市化趨勢與集水區水文特性變異之因子。並開發有效之降雨模擬模式與逕流模擬模式。第二年研究重點為將第一年中研析出的影響洪災的都市化趨勢因子納入降雨模擬模式與逕流模擬模式開發過程中，以期建置出可反應都市化效應的降雨模擬模式與逕流模擬模式。並以歷史事件資料進行降雨模擬模式與逕流模擬模式參數檢定工作。最後即可利用已建置完成之降雨模擬模式與逕流模擬模式，配合擬定之未來都市化情境，探討都市化前後對城市發生洪災變化之影響。第三年研究重點為依據降雨模擬模式與逕流模擬模式的模擬結果，探討平原型及盆地型兩種不同形式的都會區因都市化過程對降雨及逕流變異之影響性，並比較兩不同形式都會區受都市化影響的差異。最後，綜整三年研究成果，研擬都市化影響下都會區防洪減災策略與建議，供未來洪水災害防治工作相關單位作業與應用時之參考。 <br> Abstract: With the growth of population in recent years, the requirement of citizens to develop their living space becomes higher and higher. Hence, the rural surroundings of urban areas are developed. However, during the process of urbanization, the area of impervious surface is increased and the land use is changed. Therefore, the catchment characteristics are changed, such as the catchment response to rainfall is accelerated and the peak runoff magnitude is increased. Consequently, modeling the rainfall-runoff process becomes more difficult and that may reduce the reliability of modeling results. Moreover, the urban heat island effect also has great influence on hydrological processes and results in the highly frequent occurrence of short duration and high intensity rainfall events. The aforementioned changes caused by urbanization will increase the flood magnitude in urban areas. Hence, assessing the impact of urbanization on hydrological processes and formulating adaptation strategies are important in hazards mitigation and sustainable development programs. In this project, in a period of three years, an evaluation methodology and effective rainfall-runoff modeling techniques are proposed for assessing the impact of urbanization on the hydrological environment. Two catchments with different characteristics are adopted as study areas. One is the Hann Creek catchment located in Taichung city and the other is the Ta-Liao-Keng Creek catchment located in New Taipei city. In the first year, the rainfall and runoff data of historical events are collected and the properties of these data are analyzed. The geographical and socio-economic data related to urbanization are also collected. The relationships among the geographical, socio-economic data and hydrological data are evaluated, and the factors that can reveal the trend of urbanization and the variation of hydrological characteristics are determined. In addition, the rainfall and runoff simulation models are developed. In the second year, the factors determined in the first year are introduced in the development of the effective rainfall and runoff simulation models. Historical events are used to calibrate the proposed rainfall and runoff simulation models. The rainfall and runoff under different future scenarios are simulated using the proposed models, and then the impacts of urbanization on urban floods are evaluated. In the third year, the impacts of urbanization on urban floods in two different types of catchment are investigated, and comparisons are made to evaluate their difference. Finally, based on the research results of this project, strategies for flood mitigation in urban areas will be drafted.都市化降雨特性地表逕流特性模擬技術洪災消減UrbanizationRainfall characteristicsSurface runoff characteristicsModeling techniqueFlood mitigation