2017-08-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/690219摘要：人口老化將造成工作人口減少與政府財政負擔的問題，因此，許多國家均提出「延後法定退休年齡」的改革，希望此政策能增加工作人口，減輕納稅人的負擔。然而，「延後法定退休年齡」是否真的能解決問題?此政策成效的關鍵在於，延後退休是否會排擠年輕人的工作機會，換言之，問題的重點為，老年人與年輕人在職場上是否為替代關係。 文獻上已有不少文章探討老年人就業和年輕人就業的關係，也有文獻嘗試估計老年人和年輕人的替代彈性。然而，絕大多數現有文獻均為實證研究，理論性文章卻付之闕如。有鑑於此，本計畫嘗試建立一個一般均衡的跨期疊代模型，並利用此模型做calibration和量化分析，希望能對此議題帶來些許的政策建議。 本計畫提出的理論模型有下面幾個特點：(1)在生產函數中勞動要素投入依照年齡和教育程度分成四類，高教育程度的年輕人和老年人假設成較為互補的要素投入，相反地，低教育程度的年輕人和老年人替代彈性較高。此差異化設定有助於我們分析，「延後法定退休年齡」的改革對不同替代程度的勞動要素投入之影響；(2)不同於標準的新古典模型所隱含的充分就業，本計畫的模型假設年輕人和老年人均有失業率(就業率)，老年人的就業率由法定退休年齡決定，年輕人的就業率則由勞動市場供需決定。此設定使我們能夠分析「延後法定退休年齡」的改革對年輕人就業率的影響。(3)生育率亦為內生決定，這特點使得我們能夠更貼切地同時討論人口老化和延後法定退休年齡的影響。本計畫的研究成果預期將能寫成一篇學術性論文，此外，量化分析結果亦可對於此議題提供政策建議。 <br> Abstract: Population aging results in a shrinking work-age population, thereby the government’s financing problem. To solve the problem, many countries implement a reform on increasing the statutory retirement age. The main purpose of the reform is to enlarge the population in the labor market and release the tax burden of tax-payers. However, is increasing the statutory retirement age really a solution? Whether the reform will be successful or not depends on the substitution between the employment of the youth and the old. The literature has discussed the relationship between the employment of the youth and the old. Some studies focus on estimating the elasticity of substitution between the youth and the old. However, to our best knowledge, most of them employ an empirical approach. Therefore, this project attempts to construct a general-equilibrium overlapping generations model. The model will be calibrated and used in our quantitative analysis. Policy implications will be provided as well. The advantages of the theoretical framework proposed in this project are summarized as follows. First, on the production side, labor inputs are heterogeneous by both age and skill types. We further assume that skilled young and skilled old workers are more complement, while unskilled young and unskilled old workers are more substitutes. The differentiated setup enables us to discuss the effects of the reform of increasing statutory retirement age on labor inputs with different degrees of substitution. Second, different from the full employment in a standard Neo-classical model, we assume the unemployment (employment) rates for both young and old workers. The employment rate of old workers is exogenous and represents the statutory retirement age. The employment rate of young workers is determined by the labor market. Third, endogenous fertility is included in the model. It is useful for us to discuss population aging and an increase in the statutory retirement age together. The goal of this project is to produce a publishable academic paper. Besides, our quantitative analysis will provide policy implications.人口老化法定退休年齡population agingstatutory retirement age