2016-08-012024-05-16https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/668293摘要：本研究計畫將之目的在於瞭解現行颱風數值預報模式對於臺灣地形效應的掌握程度，以及瞭解數 值模式預報臺灣地形對於登陸颱風之強度、風力與降水分佈的準確程度。本研究將以WRF 模式做為 颱風數值預報模式，針對兩類典型侵台路徑（西行及北行）颱風，探討臺灣地形效應對於此兩類型路 徑颱風的強度與結構（包括風力與降水分佈）的影響。西行路徑颱風將以莫拉克(2009)颱風為典型個 例，北行颱風則以敏督利(2004)為代表個案，討論不同地形解析度與不同大氣模式解析度對於西行及 北行颱風之強度與結構(包括風力與降水分佈)的預報差異程度。然後再針對非典型路徑颱風(如2001 年納莉颱風)，依照對於典型路徑颱風的研究步驟，討論臺灣地形效對其強度、風力與降水分佈之影響。 單一高解析度模式預報結果，將與較低解析度系集預報（20-30 組成員）結果做比較，以客觀量化單 一預報的不確定性。<br> Abstract: This objective of this project is to understand the extent of Taiwan terrain effects represented by the current typhoon numerical prediction model, in particular, to examine the accuracy of typhoon numerical model in predicting the changes of storm intensity, wind gust, and rainfall distribution imposed on landfalling typhoons by Taiwan terrain. This study will use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model as the typhoon prediction model, and typhoons with two types (westerward and northward propagation) of typical track will be chosen to investigate the Taiwan terrain effects. Typhoon Morakot (2009) is chosen as the typical case for the westward-moving typhoons, and Typhoon Mindulle (2004) is chosen as the typical case for the northward-moving typhoons. We will examine the impacts of different terrain resolution and vaious model resolution on the simulated storm intensity, wind gust, and rainfall distribution. Similar examination approach will be applied to landfalling typhoons with atypical track, and Typhoon Nari (2001) will be the example typhoon with uncommon track. Finally, ensemble forecast with many (20-30) lower-resolution members will be compared with one single deterministic forecast with finer resolution, and the forecasting uncertainty will be further quantified objectively.地形效應數值預報模式颱風的強度風力與降水分佈系集預報terrain effectnumerical prediction modelstorm intensitywind gust and rainfalldistributions of landfalling typhoonsensemble forecast