2016-03-092024-05-16https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/668264摘要：由於熱帶季內震盪Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)對流現象，常會決定南海的西南季風肇始，進而影響臺灣的梅雨季入梅時間，而且西南季風可由熱帶地區帶來暖濕空氣，提供梅雨季在臺灣地區豪大雨的水氣來源，並且MJO現象也會影響臺灣附近的颱風活動。基於以上原因，本計畫的主要目的在於應用DYNAMO實驗的密集觀測資料，系統性地評估CWBGFS模式對於熱帶季內振盪MJO現象的掌握程度。另外本計畫將利用奇異向量(singular vector)技術產生初始條件擾動，進行20組成員的系集預報實驗，並應用RMM(The Real-time Multivariate MJO)指數評估各組系集預報(ensemble forecast)實驗的MJO特徵。<br> Abstract: The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) affects the onset of southwesterly monsoon flow in the South China Sea and the beginning of Mei-Yu season in the Taiwan area. Furthermore, the southwesterly flow transports warm and moist air from the Tropics to the vicinity of Taiwan, resulting in heavy rainfall. The MJO events may also affect the typhoon activities over the western Pacific Ocean. The main objective of this project is to use the intensive observation data collected during the DYNAMO field campaign to assess the MJO forecast skill of the CWBGFS model. In addition, this project will consider the perturbations of the atmospheric initial conditions from the singular-vector technique and generate 20 ensemble members, and then calculate the RMM (The Real-time Multivariate MJO) index to assess the MJO characteristics in the ensemble simulations.熱帶季內震盪DYNAMO實驗CWBGFS模式RMM指數Madden-Julian OscillationDYNAMOCWBGFSThe Real-time Multivariate MJO