蔡博文臺灣大學：地理環境資源學研究所翁培文Weng, Pei-WenPei-WenWeng2007-11-262018-06-282007-11-262018-06-282005http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/54924近代的人口研究常將人口數視為基本資料，對此並未有太多的著墨，但由於過去人口統計的不確實，歷史人口遂成為重要的研究議題。在漢人社會多子多孫的觀念下，人口成長會漸漸的逼近環境負載力，故可援引環境負載力的觀點，由田園面積的改變來詮釋人口成長，但這種方式受限於清治臺灣土地資料的不確實，難以應用在臺灣歷史人口研究，所幸，籍由GIS與地理統計的協助，得以重構1796~1895年的土地利用，計算原住民、旱田、水田三種土地利用的面積，經轉換後求出環境負載力，並與人口史料進行比較，結果顯示，大部份的時間二者相當接近，少部份則因自然增加須一段時間才能接近環境負載力而有較大的差距。Recent population studies often regard population count as basic data, hence often do not spend too much time writing on these data. However, past data are often inaccurate, historical population has become an interesting research topic. With the China tradition idea of “the more descendants, the more auspices”, the population growth will close to Carrying Capacity. Then we can follow the concept of Carrying Capacity and use the area of dry farmland and paddy field to explain the trend of population growth. But when these lands were transformed into use of cultivation was not recorded, this method is not so working to prove Taiwan census data in Ching Dynasty. Fortunately, with the help of GIS, we can rebuild the land use data from 1796 to 1895 and calculate the Carrying Capacity by determining the area of aboriginal lands, dry farmlands and paddy fields. After comparing the calculated Carrying Capacity with the population census data of the Ching Dynasty, it was found that the two are not far off in the greater part. Some differences are because natural increase requires some lag time for population growth to reach Carrying Capacity.第一章　緒論.............................................................................. 1 第一節　引言....................................................................... 1 第二節　研究動機與目的..................................................... 3 第三節　研究議題的時空範圍.............................................. 5 第四節　研究架構與研究流程............................................ 10 第二章　文獻回顧..................................................................... 13 第一節　環境負載力.......................................................... 13 第二節　噶瑪蘭人口研究................................................... 17 第三節　地理資訊系統....................................................... 22 第四節　小結...................................................................... 25 第三章　聚落的發展及旱田空間推估........................................ 26 第一節　研究區地形........................................................... 27 第二節　噶瑪蘭簡史........................................................... 29 第三節　聚落的發展與史料空間化..................................... 32 第四節　開墾年代的推估................................................... 43 第四章　水圳的開設及水田空間推估........................................ 52 第一節　研究區氣候和水文................................................ 53 第二節　水圳的開設與分佈................................................ 56 第三節　水圳史料空間化................................................... 60 第四節　水田化年代的推估................................................ 68 第五章　環境負載力與歷史人口數............................................ 75 第一節　年代與面積的修正................................................ 75 第二節　噶瑪蘭人口史料................................................... 86 第三節　水旱田環境負載力的設定..................................... 88 第四節　環境負載力與人口數的比較................................. 92 第五節　研究限制.............................................................. 96 第六章　結論與後續研究建議................................................... 99 第一節　結論...................................................................... 99 第二節　後續研究建議..................................................... 102 主要參考資料........................................................................... 104 附錄......................................................................................... 109 附錄一　土名空間界限的推估.......................................... 109 附錄二　各區塊面轉點方式.............................................. 111 附錄三　灌溉系統的劃分................................................. 114 附錄四　人口史料與環境負載力比較表(詳表).................. 1169090633 bytesapplication/pdfen-US空間重構土地利用變遷歷史人口spatial reconstructionland use changehistory population[SDGs]SDG15thesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/54924/1/ntu-94-R92228010-1.pdf