李吉仁臺灣大學:國際企業學研究所史中翰Smith, John-CalvinJohn-CalvinSmith2010-05-112018-06-292010-05-112018-06-292008U0001-2301200911540900http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/182715第三代太陽能技術與產業發展之情境分析據近期能源需求之大量成長的趨勢，可實用且可替代之再生能源引起了大眾的興趣。太能光電在市場上毫無先例的需求量已造成其主要配件的短缺。上述之情勢導致價格與盈amp;#63965;超越了平衡點， 也因此激勵了投資者之進一步的投資。目前之經濟情況已改變了市場競爭背景，且對於市場需求是否繼續成長以及盈利空間帶來了一些疑點，製造第一代太能光電的公司較有可能承受最大的損失。不同於在1980 年代早期當能源價格下跌時的形，就算沒有化石燃料的短缺，太陽能光電的發展可能已達到了可持續的水準。到近期，太陽能光電之產業經歷了高峰的投資期，也因此促進了大量的創新。因為技術的進步與供應鏈的創新，第三代太陽能光電應比目前現有之技術來的更有效率，且比傳化石燃料更具有競爭性。從美國矽谷開始之起步者(或任何其他擁有可實用之第三代太能光電技術的公司)將可使用亞洲之原始設計製造商/電子製造服務公司來快速的進入市，且免投入大幅的成本來製造資本密集型的能量。因此，資本有限之小規模起步者將有能為能源產業帶來一個典範的轉移。With the recent trends of tremendous energy demand growth, viable alternative renewablenergy sources have received great interest. Unprecedented demand in the photovoltaic (PV)arket resulted in shortages of key inputs. This led to above equilibrium prices and profit,hich in turn stimulated further investment. Current economic conditions have changed theompetitive landscape to one of que stionable further demand and profits, firms that produceirst generation PV are likely to suffer the most. Unlike the early 1980’s when energy priceseclined, PV development may have reached a sustainable level even without shortages ofossil fuels.he industry was until most recently in a period of high investment, resulting in muchnnovation. Due to technological advances and supply chain innovation, third generation PVhould be both more efficient than current technology as well as competitive with conventionalossil fuels. Silicon Valley startups (or any other firms that have viable third generationechnologies), will be able to use Asian ODM/EMS firms to move very quickly into this marketithout the significant cost of building capitally intensive capacity. Thus, small startups withimited capital can potentially create a paradigm shift in the energy industry.Table of Contentscknowledgements…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. ..ihesis Abstract (English)…………………………………………………………………………………………………………… iihesis Abstract (Chinese)………………………………………………………………………………………………………….iiiable of Contents ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..ivable of Figures ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..viist of Tables………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…vii Introduction …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….1.1 Background …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………4.1.1 Climate Change ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..7.1.2 Oil Prices ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….8.1.3 Population Growth …………………………………………………………………………………………………………..8.1.4 Resource Scarcity ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..9.2 Previous Work/Research ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..9.3 Research Motivation and Questions ………………………………………………………………………………….10.4 Purposes ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………11.5 Methodology and Scope…………………………………………………………………………………………………….11.6 Limitation…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..12.7 Thesis Structure …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………13I Literature review ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….14.1 Porter Five Forces Analysis ………………………………………………………………………………………………..14.2 Industrial Scenarios ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………17II Industry ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………19.1 PV Energy Conversion ……………………………………………………………………………………………………….19.2 PV Industry Overview ……………………………………………………………………………………………………..…19.3 Entry Barriers …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….21.4 Buyers ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….23.5 Rivalry …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…30.6 Substitutes ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…36.7 Suppliers ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………45V Research ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..50.1 Uncertain Elements in the PV Industry ………………………………………………………………………………50.1.1 Entry Barriers ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…50.1.2 Buyers …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….51.1.3 Rivalry ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….…52.1.4 Substitutes ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..54.1.5 Suppliers …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………55.2 Scenarios in the PV Industry ………………………………………………………………………………………………56.2.1 Most Important Scenario Variables (No Third Generation) ………………………………………….…56.2.2 Least Important Scenario Variables (No Third Generation) ………………………………………….…57.2.3 Most Important Scenario Variables (Third Generation) …..……………………………………………..57.2.4 Least Important Scenario Variables (Third Generation) ……………………………………………….…58.2.5 Special Variable ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………59.3 Causal Factors in the PV Industry …………………………………………………………………………………..….60.3.1 No Third Generation PV ……………………………………………………………………………………………….…60.3.2 Third Generation PV ……………………………………………………………………………………………….………62.3.3 Special Variable ……………………………………………………………………………………………..……………….64.4 Range of Assumptions in the PV Industry ……………………………………………………………………….…65.5 Analysis of PV Scenarios ………………………………………………………………………………………………….…67.6 Optimal Strategies for Third Generation PV Startups …………………………………………………………69 Conclusion and Suggestions …………………………………………………………………………………………………71.1 Research Summary …………………………………………………………………………………………………………...71.2 Strategic Recommendations …………………………………………………………………………………………..…73.3 Exit Strategy Possibilities for VC with EMS Firms ..………..……………………………………………………74.4 Further Research ………………………………………………………….…………………………………………………..76ppendix I ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….77ppendix II .…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….81ibliography ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………82ist of Figuresig. 1-1 World Energy Consumption…………………………………………………………………………………………..5 ig. 1-2 Electrical Demand Estimates 2004-2050………………………………………………………………………..5ig. 1-3 Total Energy Investment by 2030…………………………………………………………………………………..6ig. 2-1 Porter 5 Forces Model ………………………………………………………………………………………………..15ig. 2-2 The Process of Constructing Industry Scenarios ………………………………………………………….18ig. 3-1 Top Ten Solar Markets in 2010 ……………………………………………………………………………………24 ig. 3-2 Grid and Off-grid Installed PV………………………………………………………………………………………30ig. 3-3 PV Production 1990-2006………………………………………………………………………………………….…32ig. 3-4 PV Production Volume 2004-2006……………………………………………………………………………….33ig. 3-5 Production and Planned PV Capacity 2006-2011………………………………………………………….34ig. 3-6 Crystalline Silicon and Thin Film Capacity 2006-2011…………………………………………………..35ig. 3-7 Various Technology International PV Production………………………………………………………...36ig. 3-8 Introduction to Main Renewable Energies ………………………………………………………………….37ig. 3-9 Americas Venture Capital and Private Equity Green Investment by Sector Q4 ‘06- Q3 ’07………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………42ig. 3-10 Emea Venture Capital and Private Equity Green Investment by Sector Q4 ‘06- Q3 ’07………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………43ig. 3-11 Silicon Supply by Firm 2005-2010………………………………………………………………………………46ig. 3-12 Silicon Market Share 2005 and 2010………………………………………………………………………….47ig. 4-1 Causal Map (No Third Generation)……………………………………………………………………………...62ig. 4-2 Causal Map (Third Generation PV)……………………………………………………………………………...64ist of Tablesable 1-1 Global Solar Energy Balance ………………………………………………………………………………………1able 1-2 Price and Efficiency of PV Generations…………………………………………………………………….…3able 1-3 Numerical Breakdown of Total Investment 2030………………………………………………………..6able 3-1 Global Solar Energy Balance……………………………………………………………………………………..19able 3-2 8.345 Megawatt PV Peak in 2010 …………………………………………………………………………….24able 3-3 PV Support Mechanism……………..………….………………………………………………………………….26able 3-4 PV Key Support Measures………………………..……………………………………………………………...27able 3-5 Payback Period and Present Value of PV Investments….………………………………………..…28able 3-6 Key Third Generation PV Firms ………………………………………………………………………………..38able 3-7 Annual CleanTech Investment Volume Analysis ……………………………………………………….44able 3-8 US CleanTech Investment by State (1Q-3Q 2007) …………………………………………………….44able 3-9 US Firm CleanTech Investment by Industry (1Q-3Q 2007) ……………………………………….44able 3-10 Silicon Supply 2005-2010……………………………………………………………………………………..…46able 3-11 Indium Required for 2 GW Thin Film………………………………………………………………………48able 3-12 Indium Price 2002-2006……………………………………………………………………………………….…48able 3-13 Indium Global Production and Reserves 2005-2006……….………………………………………49able 3-14 Tellurium Price 2002-2006………………………………………………………………………………………49able 3-15 Tellurium Global Production and Reserves 2005-2006…………………………………………...50able 4-1 Most Important Scenario Variables (No Third Generation)…………………………….…………60able 4-2 Most Important Scenario Variables (Third Generation Viable…………………………………..62able 4-3 Most Important Variables and the Effects on Price…………………………………………………..65able 4-4 Scenario Variables…………………………………………………………………………………………………….66able 4-5 Analysis of Scenario Variables ………………………………………………..………………………………..67able 4-6 Optimal Strategy for Third Generation PV Startup Firms………………………………………..…70application/pdf1577788 bytesapplication/pdfen-US第三代太陽產業發展情境分析Third Generation Photovoltaic IndustryIndustry ScenarioVenture Capital[SDGs]SDG7[SDGs]SDG9thesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/182715/1/ntu-97-R94724097-1.pdf