吳俊毅陳宜廷2026-03-062026-03-062024-01https://doi.org/10.6277%2fTER.202401_52(1).0003https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/736121本文利用Chen（2021）最近提出的計量方法，在允許抽樣頻率或觀察值公佈日不同的大量變數架構中，建立一個高頻率平滑化的「台灣景氣指標」。我們在這個實證研究中說明，新指標相較於文獻中常見的月頻率擴散指標及國發會的平滑化同時指標及領先指標，在回溯刻畫台灣的經濟情勢變化及詮釋國發會認定的景氣轉折具有良好的實證表現。此外，新指標可於每個月內隨新增觀察值進行更新且易於維護，或可用於即時監測最新之經濟情勢變化。We utilize Chen's (2021) method to establish a high-frequency smooth index for measuring and nowcasting Taiwan's business conditions. This index is created using large-scale macroeconomic variables and the information of their observation dates. This empirical study shows that, compared to the monthly diffusion index often seen in the literature and the monthly coincident and leading indices of the National Development Council, the new index performs well in measuring Taiwan's business conditions. Meanwhile, the new index might be easily updated in real time and applied to nowcasting Taiwan's business conditions.混合頻率現測平滑化景氣指標mixed frequencynowcastingsmooth business conditions indexjournal article10.6277/TER.202401_52(1).0003