2004-01-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/702331摘要：氣候改變最直接之影響包括水文與水資源等。水文或水資源系統分析之水平衡關係中，除了流量流入海洋外，主要輸入與輸出分別為降雨與蒸發散，降雨多寡當然直接與氣候有關，蒸發散則受輻射能量、風速、大氣相對濕度等氣象因子影響，因此不論河川流量、農業作物灌溉需水量、地下水補注量均會受到氣候變遷之衝擊，進一步影響水資源的供需。本研究計畫主要乃利用主持人過去的研究成果，透過資料收集與分析，利用過去已建立的方法與模式，探討未來氣候變遷下對水文及水資源系統之衝擊評估及調適策略。重點將放在利用更多IPCC提供的氣候變遷預設情境，包括SRES預設情境以及IS92a預設情境。除此之外，另一重點乃探討水文與水資源管理的衝擊影響之不確定性，包括氣象資料、情境資料、模式以及應用過程對於結果的不確定性。最後一個重點乃由衝擊風險評估以及不確定性分析之結果，擬定調適策略。除了蒐集國內外之相關因應策略之外，並與目前相關行政機關措施配合，以擬定未來氣候變遷影響下相關之調適策略。而本計畫結果將可提供撰寫我國「國家通訊」與本計畫相關之部分內容。最後，本研究也將提出衝擊評估所需氣候資料項目、及其空間與時間尺度需求，並提出衝擊評估模式未來<br> Abstract: Hydrology and water resources system could be directly impacted by climate change. The major components of water budget of hydrology or water resources system include rainfall and evapotranspiration, etc. Rainfall is directly influenced by climate, while evapotranspiration is also related to wind, solar radiation, or temperature, etc. Thus, all streamflow, irrigation water requirement, groundwater recharge, and furthermore water resources system will be influenced by climate change. This study has five major tasks. (1) Based on previous studies, climate change assessment of hydrology and water resources will be done in this study. More SRES and IS92 climate change scenarios will be considered. (2) Besides, this study will also focus on uncertainty analysis, including data and model uncertainty. (3) Adaptations for water resources systems will be addressed based on previous two tasks. (4) The sections of National Communication associated with this study will be written. (5) Requirements of data and development of evaluation model will also be suggested.全球暖化溫室效應水文循環水資源Global WarmingGreen House EffectHydrology CycleWater Resources