2011-01-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/681262摘要：本計畫目標為訓練跨領域的人才，由水資源管理與災害消減決策之角色扮演分析模擬，來培養下一代的理性公民與領導人才。其中包含了(1) 工程技術與決策之背景資訊的可靠、有效性以及其相關之限制(2)決策過程之人為因素與相對成本兩項概念(3)利用系統動力方法分析防災決策之各個層次與過程。過程包含了水文氣象資料之瞭解與整合（與大氣系郭鴻基老師合作）、水文水理模式之分析、生態模式衝擊評估（與海洋所謝志豪老師合作）、資料庫及資料有效決策支援系統（與土木系康仕仲老師合作）等過程來建立模擬決策之背景資訊，依據這些資訊由進行角色扮演之決策模擬分析，學生依其不同專業領域、扮演相關利益關係者及決策者的角色，透過系統動力學對問題的理解分析，探討決策行為與內在機制間相互之依存關係，並且透過數學模型的建立、運用操作的過程來進一步分析，在分析中產生變化形態的因、果關係。因此，本計畫預定讓工學院的學生除了在其原有專業訓練中就擅長的數學、工程、資訊等工具外，能跳出原有之框架，瞭解到工程工具的侷限性、以及其較不常接觸到的人為社會因素所造成的影響關係。<br> Abstract: The purpose of the project is to provide interdisciplinary training to students by water resources and hazard management practice. By participating in the simulation of decision making process of the practice, students can learn the knowledge of other disciplines and review problem from different perspectives. The project includes three major issues, respectively are 1) the limitation of information and engineering measure, 2) the decision making cost and 3)using system dynamics to analysis different phase of disaster mitigation decision. To understand the first issue, students are expected to understand the use of climate data and its uncertainty, the hydrologic/hydraulics models, ecology system simulation, and the development of database. According to the background information, students will learn how to make disaster mitigation decision. In addition, students will applying system dynamics model to analysis the decision they made. Simulation of the model over time is considered essential to understand the dynamics of the disaster decision making system. The students are supposed to understand the system and its boundaries, identify the key variables, represent of the physical processes or variables through mathematical relationships, map the structure of the model and simulate the model for understanding its behavior. These are the major steps they will be assigned in the development of a system dynamics model. With this effort, students could have better insight of disaster decision making. This knowledge could benefit engineering students by involving more soci-economic concerns and let them how their profession will be applied in real world.水資源與災害削減管理決策制定角色扮演系統動力分析Water resourceshazarddecision makingrole-playingsystem dynamics