2011-04-262024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/682642摘要:高屏溪流域於2009年莫拉克颱風與2010年凡那比颱風皆遭受到重大災害。未來我國可能因全球氣候變遷之影響,而遇到長延時強降雨之水文事件。再加上海平面上升,易使低窪地區在遭受暴雨侵襲時會產生更嚴重的淹水問題。為確保我國人們之安全福祉,有需要對未來全球氣候變遷影響下堤防防洪強度進行評估。 本計畫為二年計畫,第一年採用一維HEC-RAS水理模式,對氣候變遷下未來50與100年之100年頻率降雨進行高屏溪流域堤防防洪強度之初步檢討。本研究將風險評估方式定義為Risk(風險) = Hazard(危險度) × Vulnerability (脆弱度),於第一年訂定危險度及脆弱度因子。第二年研究針對危險度及脆弱度分別建立評估方法,再將危險度及脆弱度各個因子的分級結果,搭配由層級分析法(AHP)所得之權重,便可進行災害風險評估,再繪製成危險度地圖、脆弱度地圖及風險地圖。 最後,依據高屏溪流域堤防防洪強度之檢討結果,參考荷蘭、日本、韓國與美國等各國之方案,研擬因應氣候變遷高屏溪流域複合型災害調適策略及行動方案。 關鍵字:高屏溪、氣候變遷、調適策略、脆弱度、風險度 <br> Abstract: The Koaping River suffered huge damages from the Typhoon Morakot in 2009 and Typhoon Fanapi in 2010. Climate change will bring huge impacts to nations all over the world. Those impacts including the followings: change in biosphere, long-duration drought, large floods trigger by extreme torrential rain, spatial change in homelands, and food scarcity. The extreme weather induced by climate change is the most direct factor influencing the floods, e.g. the extreme rainfall increases discharge and inundation area, sea level and estuary water level raising induce overbank floods, and land-use abuse and land-slides trigger high concentration of sediment discharge and river bed aggradations. This is a two-year project. This project aims at the settings of hydrological scenarios due to climate change, evaluation of hydraulic structures (e.g. levees), vulnerability and risk analysis, and adaption strategy and practices. The study area is focused on Kaoping River Basin. First, the hydrological scenarios due to climate change are set. Secondly, based on those scenarios, the hydraulic structures are evaluated. Thirdly, the vulnerability and risk analysis are performed. Last, adaption strategy and action plans are proposed by referencing to actions taken by the Netherlands, Japan, Korea, and USA for improving the capacity of the hydraulic structures of Kaoping River. Keyword: Kaoping River, Climate Change, adaption strategy, vulnerability, risk高屏溪氣候變遷調適策略脆弱度風險度Kaoping RiverClimate Changeadaption strategyvulnerabilityrisk強化高屏溪流域因應氣候變遷防洪調適能力研究計畫(2/2)