陳正剛2006-07-252018-06-292006-07-252018-06-292002http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/4196半導體代工製造網路是由IC 設計公司或IDM 公司、 代工晶圓廠、電訊測試、組裝廠及測試廠所組成，需求規 劃在整個製造網路的規劃中為一極關鍵的步驟，其規劃結 果為每一個網路中規劃活動的基礎且決定整個網路規劃 決策的品質。然而，需求資訊卻是在整個規劃過程中最不 可靠的資訊，尤其是經過供應鏈層層傳遞後，需求資訊時 常因此變得更不穩定，這種不確定的需求資訊為傷害製造 網路規劃決策品質的主要因素。在本研究的第一年，我們 已建構一完整的需求規劃組織架構，此架構包含下列四種 必要的基礎功能：(1)多元需求規劃策略(2)統計需求預測(3) 需求規劃與預測之複合與解析(4)製造網路間的需求協調 規劃。在本研究的第二年中，我們發展出提高需求規劃正 確性與效率之方法。將需求從不同的觀點來做策略規劃， 並從幾種不同的觀點中做必要的複合與解析，我們亦從更 多的考慮面發展出適合用於供應鏈規劃的統計需求預測 方法。Semiconductor manufacturing network consists of IC design houses/IDM, foundry fabs, probing, assembly, and final test processes. Demand planning is the very first critical task for the planning of the entire manufacturing network. Its result serves as the basis of every planning activity and ultimately determines the quality of the planning decisions and thus the efficiency of operations in the network. Nevertheless, the demand information propagated through the network is the most uncertain information that plagues the planning quality. In the first year of this research, we have constructed a complete framework of demand planning. The framework consists of multidimensional demand planning, statistical demand forecast, demands aggregation/granularity, and synchronization of demand signals in the network. In the second year, multidimensional planning strategies are proposed to better handle the complicated supply-demand relationships in the network. Statistical forecast techniques with aggregation/granularity considerations are also developed accordiingly.application/pdf243797 bytesapplication/pdfzh-TW國立臺灣大學工業工程學研究所需求規劃需求預測供應鏈規劃demand planningdemand forecastsupply chain planning (SCP)reporthttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/4196/1/902218E002046.pdf