2017-12-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/675082摘要：魚類的成長常因許多生物及非生物因子(例如：氣候變遷)而隨時間變異；然而在進行漁業資源評估時鮮少將時間成長變異考慮在其中。反之，資源評估模式通常假設成長隨時間固定不變。研究文獻指出大平洋黑皮旗魚(Makaira nigricans)成長變異大，未確定高，然而該問題未詳細的考慮在漁業資源評估中。本研究計畫申請兩年經費補助進行考慮魚類時間成長變異之資源評估研究。第一年研究目標為以雙年齡形質(耳石微成長輪及硬棘年輪)來進行臺灣海域黑皮旗魚年齡查定與成長估計，該研究結果將與太平洋黑皮旗魚成長數據整合，作為貝氏階層成長模式輸入資料，估計太平洋黑皮旗魚時間成長變異。第二年研究目標為發展年齡結構資源評估統計模式，並將第一年黑皮旗魚時間成長變異結果考慮在模式中。比較考慮與未考慮時間成長變異之資源評估結果差異。此外，本計畫將發展族群動態模擬操作模式，模擬不同時間成長變異情境(年間或年級群間成長變異)，假設族群動態“真值”的已知下，檢評年齡結構資源評估統計模式的估計表現力，探討產卵親魚量、漁獲死亡率等重要漁業管理參數之估計偏差，探討不同資源評估方法之意涵。透過本計畫共二年之執行研究成果，將更了解太平洋黑皮旗魚的族群動態，促該漁業資源達到永續利用與管理之目標。<br> Abstract: Growth in fish can change over time and between cohorts due to many biotic and abiotic factors, yet temporal variability in fish growth is rarely accounted for in fisheries stock assessment models. Rather, stock assessment models commonly assume that growth is constant through time. Large variation in growth has been identified for the Pacific blue marlin (Makaira nigricans), but not been previous incorporated in the stock assessment model. We seek funding to conduct a two-year research of incorporation of time-varying growth into fisheries stock assessment. The primary objective of the first year is to conduct age determination and growth estimation of blue marlin in the waters off Taiwan by using combining method of otolith micro-increment and sectioned dorsal fin spines. The result in combination with the growth estimates in the Pacific Ocean will be used to develop the Bayesian hierarchical growth model to describe temporal variability in growth rate of the Pacific blue marlin. The objective of the second year is to develop a statistical catch-at-age model (SCAA) which accounts for time-varying growth based on the first year’s result. Key outputs of a standard stock assessment model that assumes static growth were compared to those of an alternative model that accounts for time-varying growth. Furthermore, we will conduct a simulation study to evaluate the performance of a stock assessment model under various assumptions for time-varying growth. Fish populations under scenarios of year- and cohort-varying growth were simulated using an individual-based model (IBM), and formed the basis for sampling data used to fit a SCAA. Bias in estimates of spawning stock biomass, fishing mortality, and key management quantities was recorded, and implications of various ways of handling time-varying growth using the SCAA will be discussed. This research will improve our knowledge of the population dynamics, current stock status and the consequence of management strategies of Pacific blue marlin, which will leading to the management goal of sustainable fishery.氣候變遷時間變異漁業資源評估漁業資源動態模擬高經濟洄游性魚類Climate changeTime-varyingfishery stock assessmentfish population dynamics simulationhigh-value migratory species