國立臺灣大學政治學系Professeur du D?partement de Sciences Politiques, Universit? Nationale de Ta?wan蔡政文Tsai, C.W.C.W.Tsai2017-09-082018-06-282017-09-082018-06-282000-12http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/281686二○○○年三月十八日對臺灣的政治發展史是一個非常重要的日子，因為這是第一次民進黨候選人陳水扁當選總統，也是第一次中華民國憲政史上可以實驗「共治」的機會，但因總統候選人陳水扁不願依憲法運作，而組織所謂「全民政府」，在沒有立法院多數黨的支持下，陳總統及新政府所提出的外交政策會有何發展，值得觀察與分析。 本文第一部分說明民進黨及陳總統外交政策的內容，大致可區分為：(一)指導性或方向性層面分如民主外交、環保外交、經貿外交、人道外交、睦鄰外交及全民外交等；(二)策略性層面如加強雙邊及多邊關係的策略，參加NGO、第二軌道外交策略等。第二部分分析外在及內在因素對執行這些政策的限制。第三部份則展望新政府外交政策的可能發展。 研究結果發現：(一)政黨輪替並未帶來臺灣外交政策的戲劇性改變，與外國一般具相對的穩定性；(二)新政府外交政策走回蔣經國總統時代的「實質外交」，放棄李登輝總統的「務實外交」；(三)美國政府對臺灣外交決策的影響力將增強，臺灣新政府外交自主性將會縮小；(四)民主外交及環保外交成效將會有限，經貿外交、人道外交及援外政策較能產生具體效果；(五)未來部分民眾會不滿意這種外交停滯現象。之所以會有這種走向主要是受到內外在因素壓力所造成。March 18, 2000 is an important date in the history of political development of Taiwan. It is for the first time the DPP access to the power of central government. The KMT become the opposition party. The new government would imply change of Taiwan foreign policy. It is our interest to analyze the impact of political alternance on the evolution of Taiwan foreign policy. This paper is divided into three parts: The first part is to present the major content of new government foreign policy. The second part is to analyze the constraint factors that would exert influence on the new government policy. The external factors and internal factors are our principal analytical subjects. The last part is to prospect on the development of new government foreign policy. From the above studies, we can get several findings: (1) Taiwan political alternanace does not imply a dramatical change of its foreign policy which shows relatively stable; (2) The new government returns to the ex-president Chiang Ching-Kuo's "substantial diplomacy" and abandons the ex-president Lee Teng-Hui's "pragmatical diplomacy" (3) Washington will increase its influence on Taiwan foreign policy and Taipei will lose more an more its autonomy on the decision-making of foreign policy; (4) The effectiveness of "democratic diploymacy" and "ecological diplomacy" will be limited and the "economic and trade diplomacy", "humanistarian diplomacy" and "aid diplomacy" will get positive results; (5) The diplomatical immobilism will imply the dis-satisfaction of certain ctegories of people. All these tendencies are the consequence of interaction between internal and external constraint factors.政治輪替；民進黨；國際政府間組織；非政府間組織；官方援助；國家利益；國家認同；民主攻治；美國；國民黨；alternance politique；DPP；OIG；ONG；ODA；int?r?t national；identit? national；d?mocratie；Etats-Unis；KMTjournal article