2013-02-062024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/682678摘要：過去水資源規劃以歷史觀測氣象與水文資料為依據，並基於未來不變的假設前提進行水資源規劃設計，然氣候變遷將改變此定常性之假設。此外，過去水資源規劃方案考量時多未將能耗納入考量。經濟部水利署水利規劃試驗所在近年來分別針對不同水資源分區評估氣候變遷下之供水風險，並提出需要強化之調適措施。然過去研究雖提出措施以減少未來缺水之風險，但並未考量是否可能增加能耗。因此，未來水資源規劃如何納入氣候變遷之影響，並在滿足水資源供需平衡之目標下，選擇最適能耗方案為本計畫推動之重點。 水資源、能源、氣候之間的關係錯綜複雜。氣候變遷影響自然水文環境因子，造成流量的變化，進而改變水資源系統供水能力。在供需無法平衡的情形下，需要有調適方案來彌補之間的差異，包括非結構性措施與結構性措施，其中結構性措施可能涉及到水資源設施元件的新建、修復或整建等，勢必會投入多樣能資源，在新增原水或供水能力的同時，如何量化分析前後的能耗差異乃是本計畫的主要目標。此外水資源、能源、氣候相互關係不僅於此，水資源供水系統同時也具有生產能源的效用，氣候變遷同時也會影響到產能的大小。基於三者間關係複雜，本計畫著重在氣候變遷調適方案新增原水或供水能力的能耗分析，輔以其它水資源、能源、氣候相關議題討論。本計畫期程為2年，今年度為第二年度，其主要的工作內容以水資源供水能力為核心，先建立水資源設施的能耗分析方法，再比較未來氣候變遷下水資源供需面的變化，並計算調適方案實施前後的能耗差異，作為挑選氣候變遷調適方案的評估準則。另外，本計畫也研究氣候變遷下流量變化對水庫水力發電的影響，針對水資源、能源、氣候三者間的回饋關係，本計畫也會輔以蒐集其他相關議題文獻，加強探討彼此間的連動關係。 <br> Abstract: Climate change has great impacts on water flows and water uses, and adaptation plans could help reduce the difference between water demand and supply. When it is about construction or repair of water supply system facilities, it needs inputs of energy and resources. How to calculate the quantity of these energy and resources is the main purpose of this project. Energy is the essential factor of economic developments, but excessive energy consumption increases greenhouse gas emission, which is a source of climate change. Due to global climate change, the risk of insufficient water supply increases, and it needs adaptation strategies and action plans to improve it. By adequate management of energy consumption, adaptation action plans could fill the gap between water demand and supply with the objective of minimizing energy consumption. The development of planning method to evaluate the energy consumption of a water supply plan is the aim of this project. There are several goals in this year: A. Collect and analyze references about decision of water resources adaptation considering energy and climate change B. Develop energy analysis method for multi-resources water supply system C. Develop principles and tools to assess adaptation plans D. Case study on energy consumption of multi-resources water supply system E. Propose multidisciplinary key issues among water resources and others水資源供水系統氣候變遷能值分析多準則分析Water ResourcesWater Supply SystemClimate ChangeEmergy AnalysisMulti-criteria Ranking Analysis