2003-08-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/707742摘要：本計畫為“颱風伴隨強風與豪雨之觀測與預報技術發展”整合計畫之第二子計畫。計畫重點為針對與東北季風共伴而導致台灣北部地區豪雨的颱風個案，分析其氣候特性、路徑特徵、綜觀天氣型態與伴隨降雨分佈特徵；並透過中尺度數值模擬與模擬結果之診斷分析，探討導致豪雨之物理機制。最後則綜合分析結果，歸納不同颱風路徑下，導致北部地區豪雨的氣象條件與預報指引。全程計畫預計三年完成，本計畫為第三年計畫。 在前兩年研究中，已針對1986~2000年間，與東北季風共伴導致北部地區豪雨之歷史颱風個案，分析其路徑特徵與降雨分佈，並分析颱風降雨氣候模式（李等，2002）對此類型颱風降雨無法掌握之情況。其次，針對1987年侵台之琳恩颱風，完成MM5之數值模擬與初步診斷分析工作。目前除正探討琳恩颱風個案中，導致台灣北部地區豪雨的物理機制外，亦針對2000年侵台的象神颱風，開始進行類似之數值模擬與分析工作。 在本（第三）年的研究中，除將完成象神颱風之模擬與診斷分析工作外，亦將比較琳恩和象神颱風個案中導致豪雨原因之差異（兩者分別代表西行和北行路徑）。其次則是綜合所有析結果，歸納此類型颱風影響下，導致台灣地區豪大雨的氣象條件與舉<br> Abstract: This is the second sub-project of the mission-oriented project “ The observation and the development of forecast technique of strong winds and torrential rains associated with typhoon”. Focus of this study is placed on the analysis and the numerical simulation of those typhoons associated with northeast monsoon that caused torrential rains at the northern Taiwan. The climatological aspect, the tracks, the synoptic environments and the rainfall distributions associated with these typhoons will be analyzed. In addition, the diagnostic analysis based on the numerical simulation results will be performed to discuss the physical processes leading the torrential rains. Finally, the meteorological conditions leading to the torrential rain at the northern Taiwan and the forecast guidelines, under different typhoon tracks will be summarized. It will take three years to complete the whole project and this is the third year of the project. In the last two-year of the project, we have analyzed the track patterns and the rainfall distributions for those typhoons associated with northeast monsoon that caused torrential rains at the northern Taiwan in 1986-2000. The deficiency of the typhoon rainfall climatological model (Lee et al., 2002) in forecasting rainfall amounts of these typhoons has also been discussed. In addition, we have finished the model simulation and the preliminary diagnostic analysis for typhoon Lynn (1987) using MM5. Currently, the physical processes leading to the torrential rains at the northern Taiwan for Lynn case is under going. We have also started similar numerical simulation and analysis for Typhoon Xangsane (2000). In this year, we will finish the numerical simulation and the diagnostic analysis of Typhoon Xangsane. The physical mechanisms leading to torrential rains for Lynn and Xangsane (two different track patterns) will be compared and discussed. In addition, the meteorological conditions and the forcing mechanisms for torrential rains associated with this type of typhoons will be synthesized based on the results of all analyses. Finally, the systematic errors of typhoon rainfall climatological model in forecasting the rainfall amount of this type of typhoon will be summarized. The guidelines to modify the typhoon rainfall climatological model will also be proposed.颱風颱風登陸豪雨數值模擬TyphoonTyphoon LandfallTorrential RainNumerical Simulation