任立中Jen, Li-Chung臺灣大學:國際企業學研究所林亭君Lin, Ting-ChunTing-ChunLin2010-05-112018-06-292010-05-112018-06-292008U0001-0707200822045000http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/182559這是一個快速經濟的時代，現在的消費者口味多變，企業為了迎合消費者，往往不斷的推出新產品。同時，在這資訊極為流通的時代，消費者無時不接受到「口碑」及「網路口碑」的訊息，也因此左右了消費者的消費決定。而電影等娛樂產業的產品，與一般的耐久財相較，更具有快速變遷、生命週期短且不確定性高的特性。因此對電影出版者而言，希望有一套完整的預測模式來預測電影的銷售量。而過去研究探討的口碑效果對電影票房的影響，多著重於口碑效果對於整體票房的影響力，極少探討到口碑的動態性效果。　本研究以美國IMDB網站(www.imdb.com)為資料的來源，蒐集2006年在美國上映的電影中，總票房最高的前30名電影的上映資料為研究對象，並且蒐集這30部電影的各週的消費者評分、消費者評分人數及其他電影的基本資料。而研究分析模式的主要分析方法為Bass 擴散模式及線性迴歸模式。其中Bass 擴散模式更包含了Bass 擴散模式的原型和修正過後的Bass 擴散模式，其中修正過後的Bass 擴散模式是將模仿係數q做不同的設定。線性迴歸模式則是分別以每週各電影資料的自變數的組合，以應變數為當週票房boxofficet跑線性迴歸，也以應變數為當週票房與上週票房的變化率 跑線性迴歸。　在兩種主要模式的分析之下，研究電影的口碑效果是否的確具有動態性影響，並且探討哪些自變數會影響到當週票房及票房變化率，有哪些自變數會造成正向且顯著的影響？針對研究結果提出行銷意涵，期望對企業有所貢獻，也對後續研究有所助益。We live in a generation of fast economy and the tastes of the consumer are highly changeable. All enterprises want to catch the appetite of the consumers, giving them the best and the most suitable product. Meanwhile, in the generation that the information circulate so fast, consumers’ decisions are affected by the “word-of-mouth” and “word-of-mouse”. Movie and the entertainment industry are especially affected by these information flows. Comparing with the durable goods, entertainment industry provides the products with the characteristics of changing speedy and short product life cycle. Therefore, the movie publishers are willing to know what the consumers really want and what really have impact on their choice. The database of this research is American website: IMDB (www.imdb.com). I collected the top 30 selling movies in America during the year 2006 and the information and critics of the movies on the website for research purpose. The research models are Bass Diffusion model and linear regression. Among the Bass Diffusion model, there are the prototype and the revise type of it. The revise model changes the imitation factor q. And the linear regression is the combinations of the movie independent variable with the box office on the current week and the variation rate of movie box office. Under these models, the research examines whether there’s a movement of movie word-of-mouse, and what kinds of independent variable will have the positive effect on the box office on the current week and the variation rate of movie box office. In light of the research results, hoping to find out the marketing meaning of the movie industry and also having contribution to the further research.口試委員審定書..........................................................................................................I謝..............................................................................................................................II文摘要......................................................................................................................III文摘要......................................................................................................................IV錄...............................................................................................................................V一章　緒論第一節　研究背景與動機.......................................................................................1第二節　研究目的...................................................................................................1第三節　論文架構概述...........................................................................................2二章　文獻探討第一節　口碑效果...................................................................................................4　一、口碑的定義...................................................................................................4　二、口碑的使用時機...........................................................................................5　三、口碑的說服效果...........................................................................................6第二節　網路口碑...................................................................................................7　一、網路口碑的形式和定義...............................................................................7　二、傳統口碑與網路口碑的差異.......................................................................7第三節　創新擴散概念...........................................................................................8　一、創新使用者類型...........................................................................................8 二、創新決策過程的模式..................................................................................10 三、溝通效果層級..............................................................................................11 四、決定接受創新接受率的變數......................................................................13 第四節　擴散模式..................................................................................................15 一、Bass擴散模式..............................................................................................15 二、Bass擴散模式參數估計法..........................................................................16三章 研究方法第一節　研究架構..................................................................................................21第二節　研究方法與模式......................................................................................22　一、Bass連續型擴散模式的原型.....................................................................22　二、線性迴歸.....................................................................................................24四章　實證分析研究第一節　資料來源分析.........................................................................................26　一、電影銷售資料.............................................................................................26第二節　實證模型建構.........................................................................................31　一、Bass連續型擴散模式的原型.....................................................................31　二、修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式 ..............................................................31　三、線性迴歸 ...................................................................................................31五章　結論與建議第一節　研究數據與結果.....................................................................................34　一、Bass連續型擴散模式的原型....................................................................34　二、修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式...............................................................41　三、線性迴歸....................................................................................................48第二節　研究發現與行銷意涵............................................................................50第三節　研究限制................................................................................................51　一、基本資料限制............................................................................................51　二、模式限制....................................................................................................51第四節　後續研究建議........................................................................................51　一、基本資料的搜集........................................................................................51　二、模式限制....................................................................................................52目錄 圖2-3-1 創新產品使用者類型(Rogers分法) ......................................................8 圖2-3-2 創新產品使用者類型(Bass分法) ........................................................10 圖2-3-3 創新決策模式.........................................................................................11目錄 表2-1　創新決策過程的各個階段......................................................................12 表3-2 口碑效果的評分的四大類型..................................................................23 表4-1　30部電影基本資料.................................................................................29表5-1-1 　Bass連續型擴散模式的原型，q>0.0001.........................................34表5-1-2 Bass連續型擴散模式的原型，q>0.00001.........................................36 表5-1-3 Bass連續型擴散模式的原型，q>0.000001.......................................38表5-1-4 修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式，q=v*g...........................................41表5-1-5 修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式，q=v*wom.....................................43表5-1-6 修正後的Bass連續型擴散模式，q=v*ab.........................................45表5-1-7 應變數為boxofficet..............................................................................48表5-1-8 應變數為 .........................................................49表5-1-9 boxoffice = + theater + totalt-1 + avgt-1...........................49考文獻一、中文部份.........................................................................................................53二、英文部分.........................................................................................................53錄附錄一　各電影的票房變化趨勢.........................................................................56application/pdf453118 bytesapplication/pdfen-US電影口碑效果動態性Bass擴散模式線性迴歸movieWOMdynamic effectBass diffusion modellinear regressionthesishttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/182559/1/ntu-97-R95724051-1.pdf