2019-08-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/709572摘要：凱因斯在1944年布列敦伍德的會議上提出國際清算聯盟的構想，目的在於讓國際收支的盈餘國與赤字國，共同分擔調整的責任。本項研究計畫的目的，就是要評估凱因斯這個構想的效果。研究計畫擬以2007年之後，歐洲央行TARGET系統的實際運作，來類比國際清算聯盟的成效。在實證方法上，本項研究計畫將會採取結構模型作為分析架構，並且使用反事實模擬來做為量化工具。<br> Abstract: Keynes proposed a plan for an International Clearing Union at the 1944 Bretton Woods conference. Keynes’ Plan puts the responsibility for adjustment on the creditor as well as the debtor country. This research proposal assesses Keynes’ plan by using a modern analog that in essence works in the spirit of Keyes’ original idea for an International Clearing Union: Euro-system’s TARGET balances since 2007. This research proposal adopts a structural model as the analytical framework, and employs counterfactual simulation to provide quantitative assessment.凱因斯國際清算聯盟國際穩定機制TARGET支付系統國際資金急煞車反事實模擬John Maynard KeynesInternational Clearing UnionInternational Stabilization MechanismTARGET BalancesSudden StopsCounterfactual Simulation