2015-08-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/706365摘要：本研究計畫將使用WRF氣象模式作多(20-40)組系集預報，分別測試是否進行颱風植入、使用不同降水物理參數法、不同的邊界層參數法等擾動方式，得到不同的流域平均雨量預報，以輸入水文模式進行河川流量及水位的預報。氣象模式預報部分將針對颱風路徑誤差、全臺與集水區之模擬雨量與觀測雨量分佈來做討論，水文模式方面將比較逐時觀測流量、觀測雨量所模擬流量及模擬雨量所模擬流量的分布進行討論。另一重點為討論氣象模式將降水預報不確定性對與水文預報的影響程度。 本計畫為三年度計畫之第三年。 <br> Abstract: This project will use the WRF meteorological model to generate 20-40 ensemble members, which include perturbations on typhoon bogusing scheme, precipitation parameterization, and planetary boundary parameterization. The forecasted rainfalls from the WRF model will be used to drive a distributed hydrological model to predict the discharge and water stage over a target watershed. Forecast verifications for the WRF model prediction include the typhoon track error, rainfall prediction error on the Taiwan Island, and rainfall prediction error on the target watershed. Forecast verifications for the hydrological model include the predicted water-stage and discharge error with observed rainfall as an input, and the predicted water-stage and discharge error with predicted rainfall. Another key issue in this proposal is to investigate the impact of rainfall forecast uncertainty on the runoff prediction. This year’s project will be the third year for the three-year project.系集預報降水預報不確定性流量預報nsemble forecastprecipitation forecast uncertaintydischarge prediction