2012-01-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/681439摘要：1999年集集地震後，中央地質調查所投入大量的資源在活動斷層的觀測研究上，建立全島的移動式GPS測站、精密水準測線、連續GPS觀測網和井下應變儀觀測站。本計畫本年度的主要執行重點為：（1）分析地調所架設的72個連續GPS測站及13站(扣除瑞峰國小測站及甲仙十八灣測站)井下應變儀之時間序列；（2）藉由移動式GPS測站、精密水準測線和連續GPS觀測網的觀測，分析主軸應變率、剪應變率和旋轉率，以了解地殼變形之型態並利用數值摸式，反演斷層面上的鎖定率、滑移虧損和滑移率；（3）比較井下應變儀和連續GPS觀測站的長期應變率，分析應變速率改變的因素；（4）由地球化學觀測的異常事件資料，配合連續GPS觀測和井下應變儀，評估地震發生前的應變異常現象；(5) 斷層活動潛勢分析方面則是評估地震機率模型應用在臺灣的可行性，藉由美國和日本發展地震機率模型經驗，分析池上斷層和小崗山斷層的活動潛勢；(6) 維護井下應變儀資料庫並提升資料庫安全性。因此本計畫的執行，旨在結合GPS測量與井下應變儀觀測，結合地質構造、地震活動觀測、數值模擬和斷層活動度的研究，期能提供近斷層活動性及其潛勢、發震構造、斷層力學和可能地震前兆的重要資訊。<br> Abstract: After 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake, the Central Geological Survey devotes a great deal of resource to establish an island-wide GPS network, precise leveling lines continuous recording GPS network and some local networks of borehole strainmeters. The main goals of this project are to: (1) explore the anomalous crustal deformation phenomena by analyzing the time series from 72 continuous GPS and 13 borehole strainmeter stations; (2) determine the accumulation of current crustal strain pattern revealed from principal strain rate, shear strain rate and rotation rate by GPS velocity filed and calculate the coupling coefficient, slip deficit and slip rate along the fault plane by inversion of geodetic measurements; (3) compare the strain rate from comtinuous GPS and strainmeter measurements and assess the parameters for the change of strain rate; (4) study the anomalous observation from geochemical monitoring stations with the comparison of continuous GPS and strainmeter measurement; (5) assess the potential of fault activity of the Chishang fault and Hsiaokangshan fault based on the earthquake probability model developed in USA and Japan ; (6) build and maintain the database for access borehole strainmeter records and set up database security. The goal of this proposal is to gather new information about fault behavior in Taiwan using the new-installed GPS and strainmeter stations. Along with multidisciplinary studies of plate-boundary tectonics, observation of earthquake activity, numerical simulations, and active fault systems, we aim at integrating these informations into a comprehensive understanding of fault activity and earthquake probability, seismogenic structures, fault mechanics and information of possible earthquake precursory.全球衛星定位系統連續觀測站時間序列井下應變儀機率式地震危害度分析GPSContinuous GPSTime SeriesBorehole StrainmeterProbabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA)