2007-06-012024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/684687摘要：本研究擬結合季節性氣候預報資料，預測未來3個月之供水情勢，以作為農業灌溉水資源管理與休耕決策之依據。而先前相關研究之經濟分析已證明利用本研究發展預測工具具有顯著經濟效益，然而不同時期之停灌休耕策略對水稻生長及產量將有一定影響，因此本年度將結合作物生理模式與氣候預報資料，探討不同休耕管理策略對水稻產量可能之影響，並考量預測之不確定性，以強化最佳風險管理制度建立，進一步討論可能之休耕補償金額，最後討論建立季節性預警作業之標準流程，並擬討論在不同灌溉水源地區建立預警系統的可能性。<br> Abstract: The purpose of this study is to establish an agricultural drought early warning system. This study will bases on the results in last year to calculate indicators and irrigation water demands based on seasonal climate forecasts on precipitation and temperature. And in this year, this study will select a suitable model to simulate the relationship between rice production and different percent of irrigation water amount supplied in different growth stages while the agricultural drought will happen.Furthermore, the compensation of different strategies will be discussed in this study. Besides, this study will also focus on identifying problems in linking early warning to risk management, which can evaluate the impacts of different water resources management strategies on agricultural drought. The feasibility of applying the proposed framework to other areas will also be addressed. This study uses monitoring weather data and seasonal climate forecasts to develop an agricultural drought early warning system.農業乾旱預警風險管理水資源氣候Agricultural droughtEarly warningRisk ManagementWater resourcesClimate