2011-08-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/712193摘要：世界上許多國家之重要運輸系統已趨於飽和，擴充現有設施容量成為當今最重要的課題之一。然而，現今的軌道容量模式，多為針對某一特定運轉形式而研發，而且無法對一些最新的軌道控制系統作運算分析。因此，本研究計畫將致力於研發軌道系統容量的評估及方法，以期建立一國際通用的「標準軌道容量估算準則」。 本研究將分三年度進行，第一年之主要目標為研究並判定影響軌道容量之重要因素。將運用模擬與統計方法檢視各變因之影響，找出其相互之間之重要性，同時也將建立起一個軌道容量資料庫系統，便於研發模式之用。研究第二年之主要目標為評估軌道容量擴充策略、建立軌道容量風險模式與標準列車當量轉換模式；這些成果可分別協助軌道業者從事未來之容量規劃，探討增減班次當中所隱含之軌道容量風險，標準化軌道容量溝通平台。研究的第三年將根據過去兩年所建立起的「軌道容量資料庫」、「重要容量變因彙整」與「標準列車當量轉換模式」，進行容量估算模式的開發。運用多元迴歸模式與類神經網路模式來建立模式，再經由模式比較與驗證，建議出最適合之估算準則。 此研究成果可應用在國內、外之軌道網路上，協助規劃人員來找出最佳的未來軌道容量規劃，並因模式考量變因之多樣性，於實際推廣時較可符合現況，以獲得較佳之規劃建議。 <br> Abstract: Railways around the world are facing capacity constraints. For example, railway freight traffic in North America has increased nearly 30% over the past 10 years, and this demand is projected to increase 88% by 2035. Besides railway sectors, capacity constraint is a common problem, of varying degrees, among all modes of transportation. It is most serious along major transportation corridors between major metropolitan areas, where virtually all modes experience increasing frequencies and durations of severe traffic congestion. With growing highway and airport congestion, and with increasing concerns about energy constraints and greenhouse gas emissions, considerable attention has been focused on the potential for increased use of the nation’s intercity freight and passenger railway system as a productive way to resolve these nationwide problems. Determining the magnitude and type of the needed capacity improvements to accommodate the desired service is crucial to assist public and private financing of capacity investments. However, for the railway domain, there is a lack of standardized and public available capacity analysis tools suitable for shared use in rail infrastructure (as described in one of the Research Needs Statements Transportation Research Board – the largest transportation society in the world). Therefore, there is a need to establish a parallel document for railway capacity similar to the standard document for highway capacity that drives investments. The scope of this project is to develop a capacity standard for railway transportation systems. Methodologies including analytical models, simulations and parametric models will all be used and tested to develop this standard. The proposed model should present a reasonably accurate and acceptable overview of capacity measures and be able to quickly compare differences between capacity measures resulting from improvements or changes in plant and/or operating parameters. Though the model should focus primarily on physical plant parameters, the ability to include operational changes should be incorporated to enable testing of capacity sensitivity to factors that affect capacity and performance. Establishing a parallel document for railway capacity is similar to the standard document for highway capacity that drives investments. This standard can assist public and private financing of rail capacity investments, determine the magnitude and type of the needed capacity improvements to accommodate the desired service, and establish cost estimates for the improvements.軌道運輸容量分析railway transportationcapacity analysis