2010-07-192024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/672075摘要：2008年5月20日，馬英九先生就任中華民國第12任總統，於就職演說中提出「正視現實、開創未來、擱置爭議、追求雙贏」16字主張，呼籲中共領導人共同尋求兩岸利益的平衡點，展現新政府推動兩岸關係的誠意。 新政府上任後，除恢復中斷近十年的海基和海協兩會交流外，更在「擱置爭議、追求雙贏」的基礎上，召開了五次「江陳會談」，共簽署了14項協議及發表1項共同聲明。 隨著兩岸交流與協議的深化，雙方跨境互動衍生的社會風險之隱憂將一一浮上台面，例如開放陸客來台觀光所帶來的社會治安問題、推動兩岸經貿交流對於國內弱勢產業的挑戰、陸生來台和大陸學歷認證可能對本地學生就業市場的衝擊；乃至於兩岸經濟合作架構協議（Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement ，ECFA）簽署後，民眾始終憂心的失業問題、產業失衡或崩解問題、國民所得薪資水準下降問題等，均未見政府部門具體向民眾說明風險控管的相關作為。上述的各項社會風險從國民就業、國民健康、社會福利與經濟保障等面向，威脅台灣民眾的社會安全和經濟安全，也使得社會各界對於兩岸交流與協議的深化，不免存有疑慮，進而可能影響兩岸關係的進展，也動搖政府落實兩岸互動政策的威信。 對於各項兩岸協議的執行，政府似乎將重點多置於檢視相關協議執行之成效，而對於兩岸交流可能帶來的社會風險，較少具體的著墨；另一方面，無論政府或民間，乃至於學術領域，雖皆知兩岸交流與協議，將可能帶來各種不同樣態的潛在風險，卻缺乏一個整合性的架構、來掌握及研判兩岸交流協議下的各種風險訊息，據以研擬或調整相關風險管理配套措施，並進一步推動與民眾之間的風險溝通。因此，政府應如何建立系統性的風險評估和控管機制，有效控管兩岸交流協議可能衍生的社會風險，自然更有其必要性與急迫性。 因此，本研究計畫除了建構兩岸交流協議的類型化分析框架外，另一方面透過各種研究方法的設計，提供兩岸交流協議社會風險管理中，從風險辨識、風險評估和控管到風險溝通的研究基礎。因此本研究的性質是量化與質化並重，透過既有文獻資料的蒐整分析、專家深度訪談的進行、焦點團體的直接座談和專家問卷調查等研究方法，進行研究問題的發掘與討論。俾能系統性地整合兩岸交流協議的各種風險，並進一步提出相關的風險管理之建議。<br> Abstract: On May 20, 2008, President Ying-jeou Ma called for "face reality, pioneer a new future, shelve controversies and pursue a win-win solution" across the Taiwan Strait in his inauguration address, appealing the Beijing government to search for the balance of common interests at both sides of the Taiwan Strait and to show the good intention of advancing the Cross-Strait relations. After KMT assumed office, the new government not only restarted the exchanges between the Straits Exchange Foundation (SEF) and the Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Straits (ARATS), but also convened the Chiang-Chen Talks five times, in which fourteen agreements have been signed and one joint statement has been announced on the basis of ‘facing reality and shelve controversies’. When the exchanges between Taiwan and China became increasingly deepened, the social risks resulted from the cross-bordered movements have also emerged to the surface, including the issue of public security caused by opening up Chinese tourists, the challenges faced by the domestic disadvantaged industries when fostering the Cross-Strait economic cooperation, and the impact on the job market of local Taiwanese students once schools in Taiwan can recruit Chinese students and degrees obtained in China can be authenticated. Furthermore, after the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) is signed, the public are always concerned about the problems of unemployment, imbalance and breakdown of industries, and the lowering of average wage due to the fact that the government did not provide concrete measures to manage the risks. The above-mentioned social risks, including employment, national health, social welfares and economic protections, threaten the social and economic security of people in Taiwan. As a result, doubts regarding the deepening of Cross-Strait exchanges and agreements from different sectors of the society are raised, which can in fact influence the development of Cross-Strait relations, as well as can weaken the credibility of government in carrying out Cross-Strait policies. To execute the Cross-Strait agreements, the Ma administration greatly focuses on reviewing the effectiveness of agreements whereas social risks engendered by Taiwan-China interactions do not receive much attention. On the other hand, although the government, the public and the academics all are aware of the potential risks the Cross-Strait exchanges and agreements might bring about, they all lack a comprehensive framework to control and judge a variety of messages associated with risks, not to mention to draw or adjust the risk management measures and to promote risk communication with the public. Therefore, how to establish systematic risk analysis and control measures in order to control the possible social risks effectively is necessary and urgent for the government. Hence, the research project aims to construct the framework for categorical analysis on one hand, and to provide a research foundation for social risk management of Cross-Strait exchange agreements from risk identification, risk appraisal, risk control to risk communication. The nature of this research project will give equal weight to quantitative and qualitative research methods. Through utilizing research methods such as literature analyses, in-depth interviews, focus group discussion and questionnaires, it is hoped to explore and discuss the research question, aiming to facilitate the integrate all forms of risks of Cross-Strait exchange agreements systematically and to raise further suggestions for risk management.