2007-08-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/699220摘要：本計畫所包含之「颱風重點研究」計畫辦公室，除推動與規劃颱風相關活動、科學會議及舉辦科學研討會外，亦同時扮演主導「侵台颱風之GPS 投落送飛機偵察及策略性觀測實驗」任務。2003年至今，投落送觀測實驗（追風計畫）已針對已針對杜鵑、米勒、妮妲、康森、敏督利、梅姬、艾利、米雷、納坦、南瑪都、海棠、馬莎、珊瑚、卡努、龍王等15個颱風完成19航次之飛機偵察及投落送觀測任務，總計在颱風上空飛行99小時、並成功投擲313枚投落送。在觀測的同時，這些寶貴的投落送資料皆即時進入中央氣象局及世界各國氣象單位之電腦預測系統中，協助預測颱風路徑及分析其周圍結構，如暴風半徑（對放颱風假與否具關鍵性影響）。到民國93年底為止，針對追風計畫所得資料的評估結果顯示，投落送資料平均可以改進美國氣象局、美國海軍及日本氣象廳全球電腦模式24~72小時颱風路徑預測準確度達20%。另一方面，投落送也已被成功用來驗證及校正衛星與雷達等遙測資料，藉此提升遙測颱風參數的可信度。整體而言，投落送觀測實驗深受國際矚目。預期此研究計畫成果將為颱風研究及颱風監測與預報帶來重大突破。（此計畫所需之飛機觀測費用主要將由中央氣象局的研究計畫支持。） 此研究未來的工作重點將包括： ‧執行DOTSTAR颱風觀測任務（預計每年8-10航次） ‧DOTSTAR即時資料分析及預報參考 ‧DOTSTAR資料對模式影響評估研究 ‧DOTSTAR資料與其他遙測資料之驗證 ‧發展新的Targeted Observation觀測策略即與其他策略之檢驗比較（結合NECP ensemble spreads, ETKF及NOGAPS Singular Vector及Adjoint Sensitivity, ADSSV, 探討最佳投落送釋放位置） ‧DOTSTAR資料之颱風邊界層動力研究 ‧颱風飛機觀測作業化可行性評估 ‧颱風飛機觀測作業化技術轉移至作業單位 ‧DOTSTAR與中央氣象局（模式與分析預報）、國科會永續會<br> Abstract: Besides helping organize the typhoon research and planning the typhoon meetings/conferences, the main function of the project office of the “Priority Typhoon Research” is to continue conducting the field experiment, “Dropsonde Observations for Typhoon Surveillance near the TAiwan Region (DOTSTAR)”. Up to now, 19 missions have been flown for 15 typhoons, with 313 dropsondes released. It has been shown that the dropsonde data improve the 12-72-h NCEP AVN track prediction by about 20%. It is believed that the DOTSTAR experiment has made a significant contribution to the international typhoon research community, and should be worthwhile to be continued. The project is expected to yield impressive breakthroughs in typhoon research, forecasting, and observation when it is completed. Note that the majority of the funding for the flight missions is expected to be funded by the Central Weather Bureau as a joint research project. The foci of the new DOTSTAR project in the next 3 years are: ‧Conducting the DOTSTAR observations（approximately 8-10mission per year） ‧Realtime analysis of the DOTSTAR data ‧Research on the impact of the DOTSTAR data to numerical models ‧Validation of the DOTSTAR data with other remote sensing data ‧Evaluation of the targeted observation strategies (e.g., development of the new scheme we developed on ADSSV, and the comparison of the ETKF, SV, ADSSV, Ensemble variances) ‧Research on the marine boundary layer dynamics using the DOTSTAR data ‧Implementation of the DOTSTAR to operation ‧Collaboration of DOTSTAR with the Central Weather Bureau and other agencies ‧Research on the data assimilation related to DOTSTAR ‧International collaboration of DOTSTAR颱風重點研究GPS投落送策略性觀測颱風偵察飛機觀測實驗資料同化Priority typhoon researchGPS dropsondeadaptive observationtyphoon surveillance observation experimentsdata assimilation