朱子豪2006-07-252018-06-282006-07-252018-06-282002http://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw//handle/246246/11408地震的成因有多種，而以地層錯動所 引發的地震為最多，約佔百分之九十以 上。地殼是由許多板塊所組成，且處於一 種動態平衡的狀態，當地殼受力時，初期 會以應力方式累積於地層內部，當在特定 的地點，因蓄積過量的應力，地殼以斷裂 的方式，將所累積的能量釋放出來，造成 地殼的震動。大地震發生以前，在未來震 源周圍相當大區域內的地球介質處於高應 力狀態， 稱“ 腫區亦即孕震區， 有相當大的岩石圈在運動著，會發生一系 列複雜的物理和化學變化，並和外界的物 質進行能量交換，使得震前出現低空大氣 增溫、低空電場異常及某些氣體如甲烷、 二氧化碳低空含量增加等現象。而衛星熱 紅外輻射儀能監測低空大氣垂直溫度異常 及其各種介面（地面、水面、溫度）變化。 本研究應用熱紅外衛星影像為主要監 測工具，以地面異常大範圍增熱為偵測對 象，依不同之地震類型與強度(規模5(含) 以上)加以歸納其可分辨之判釋模式。將地 面正常溫度的數值或邏輯模式透過地區性 氣象溫度資料的歸納與迴歸加以建立，再 與熱紅外光判釋溫度加以比較，以推出可 能異常區。此外可訪談已有經驗之判釋者 以建立局部異常的判釋特徵或判釋準則。 未來可以用以建立判釋模式及知識庫之 用。運用類神經網、統計迴歸分類及準則 以專家系統等技術來建立溫度異常移動規 模與地震時間、空間及規模間之關連性。After the 921 Earthquake, people in Taiwan realized earthquake is one of the large-scale natural disasters with huge damages. To accurately forecast earthquake, especially the short-term one is the important basis for disaster mitigation. There are many earthquake-forecasting techniques developed by the experts from USA, Japan, China and Russia were successfully in many cases through using earth-physics, earth-chemise, and crest-movement detection methods. Among these methods, applying thermal inferred-Red imagery in the prediction is the most feasible and cheapest approach. In this research, data bases of earth-quake, thermal imagery, pre-sight data were established, and the abnormal-thermal and its movement were detected and applied to predict the earthquake center location, time and their scale based on the red-swollen theory. The thermal imagery were tracing form 1.5 month before the earthquakes, the abnormal warm areas and their movement was tracked and applied in digging out the relationship among the movement and the centers of earthquakes. A computer-assistant prototype system was developed based on the detecting techniques and forecast model developed in this research. The tracking paths of abnormal warm areas were found, the temperature changes around the centers of earthquakes indicated that there might be a concave area in term of temperature around the center of earthquakes. Finally a proposal of an integrated, long-term research project for better earthquake forecasting and monitoring was presented.application/pdf191055 bytesapplication/pdfzh-TW國立臺灣大學地理環境資源學系暨研究所短期地震預報熱紅外影像遙測紅腫說Short-Term Earthquake ForecastThermal Inferred-Red ImageryRemote Sensingreporthttp://ntur.lib.ntu.edu.tw/bitstream/246246/11408/1/902116M002030.pdf