2008-10-012024-05-18https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/701411摘要：近 幾 年 來，氣候異常造成極端的水文事件發生之頻率增加，對水庫的功能與安全性的衝擊影響也相當的大， 氣候變遷可能導致更嚴重之氣候變異。本研究將探討水庫系統受氣候變遷影響可能遭受的衝擊， 並建立評估工具以量化的方式評估水庫系統之脆弱度， 且發展支援調適管理之系統，結合預警與風險管理機制， 評估啟動調適策略的時機與方法。本研究將調 適策略分成長期規劃性與短期操作性調適策略， 以因應長期氣候變遷與短 期氣候變異之衝擊。長期氣候變遷衝擊評估主要利用大氣環流模式（ General Circulation Models, GCMs） 分 析 預 設 氣 候 變 遷 的 預 報 資 料 結 果，探討水庫 系統可能之衝擊與集水區降雨沖蝕指數之影響， 並分析可行之長期規劃性 調適策略。而在短期氣候衝擊主要在利用監測資料辨識是否環境確實已在 發生改變， 除了啟動短期因應對策外， 最後結合層級分析法（ Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP） 發展調適策略之決策模式， 建立具有回饋控制能力之風險管理機制。本研究今年主要工作重點乃將成果產品化， 包括訂定標準分析流程與技術規範， 並整合脆弱度評估與調適策略決策工具， 期望能提供其他國內研究人員快速投入本研究領域所需之知識與工具； 並將應用於總計畫規劃之示範計畫─ 曾文水庫系統， 以檢討應用性。<br> Abstract: Climate variability results in more frequent extreme hydrological events which may further greatly influence reservoir’s abilities to provide service and even danger reservoir’s safety. Climate change may cause more climate variability. This study will focus on evaluating the impacts of climate change on reservoir systems and develop tools to quantify vulnerability. To mitigate climate change impacts, a system to support decision making for implementing adaptation strategies will be developed with the principles of risk management. The adaptation strategies are classified as long-term planning and short-term operational strategies to correspond to long-term climate change and short-term climate variability. The GCMs’ outputs will be applied to evaluate the potential long-term climate change impacts on reservoir systems and rainfall erosivity. The results will be analyzed to identify feasible long-term planning adaptations. On the other hand, this study will also develop a short-term climate variability impact assessment framework by using environmental monitoring data to trigger short-term operational strategies. At last, Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) will be applied to develop a model with the feedback control system to support decision making to determine priority of adaptations. The major tasks of this study in this year are packing all the models in the assessing systems to a package, making the standard analysis process and technical specification, and integrating the tools of vulnerability assessment and strategic decision. Hopefully, the result will offer the other researchers the knowledge and tools to this study field. To identify the applicability of the research, Tseng-Wen reservoir is chosen to be the practice of the vulnerability assessment under the impact of climate.氣 候 變 遷脆 弱 度風 險 管 理回饋控制季節性氣候預報Climate ChangeVulnerabilityRisk ManagementFeedback ControlSeasonal Climate Forecast氣候變遷對災害防治衝擊調適與因應策略整合研究-子計畫:水庫系統在變遷氣候中之脆弱度評估與支援決策技術發展(III)