2017-12-012024-05-13https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/655106摘要：淡水河流域這數十年來歷經許多重大環境變遷，包括上游土地利用型態改變、氣候 變遷、水壩設立及台北市與新北市政府增設之廢水處理系統。為了解重大環境變遷 (包括：土地利用變遷、氣候變遷與廢水處理系統)與流域各主要因子(地貌、地形 、水文、氣候、潮汐、人類及其他生物)之交互關係與複雜之生態後果，本研究計 畫將結合多面向環境生態因子，以跨領域的整合性模型方法，配合生態系統觀點 ，運用地理空間資訊、動態物理模型、化學及生態模型、統計及人工智慧等技術 ，透過資料整合、系統分析、情境模擬等方法，整體評估淡水河在各類環境變遷下 所帶來的影響與潛在風險，以作為未來永續生態系經營政策之參考。 研究議題包括：一、蒐集現有淡水河長期土地利用、地形、氣候、水文、水質、生 態等資料，並展開新的、長期且連續之資源調查；二、以高程趨動水在陸域及水域 生態系統之流動途徑，建構整體生態系統架構；三、分析此生態系統內主要水文及 營養鹽之循環機制與生物之交互作用；四、整合地形、營養鹽、水文、水質及生態 模型，建置整合陸域及水域之生態系統模型；五、模擬不同環境變遷情境下生態系 統變化，以評估未來永續經營之潛在風險，作為淡水河永續經營計畫之參考。 <br> Abstract: The Danshuei River Watershed has been long encountered several major environmental changes, including the land use change at the upstreams, climate change, development of check dams and reservoirs, and the wastewater treatment facilities and plants constructed by the Taipei and the New Taipei City Governments. To understand how major environmental changes, including landuse change, climate change, and wastewater treatments interact with other key components of the watershed like geomorphology, hydrology, local climate conditions, tide, and human or other natural communities, and how complex ecological consequences are triggered by these environmental changes, it is critical to apply an ecosystem modeling approach to comprehensively assess the associated environmental impacts and risks of the river for preparing future adaptation strategies. Therefore, this study will combine heterogeneous environmental and ecological factors to explore and quantify interactions among the entire ecosystem components across terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, assess impacts from environmental changes, and evaluate sustainable ecosystem management strategies. This interdisciplinary study will apply integrated modeling approach linking multiple models and techniques like GIS, system dynamics, statistics, and artificial intelligence (AI) to assess potential sustainable ecosystem management strategies under environmental changes. This study will be organized into the following main tasks: (1) acquire and analysis available long-term landuse, geomorphology, climate, hydrology, water chemistry, and ecological data, as well as set up new environmental monitoring plans for long-term and continuous environmental measurements; (2) apply the elevation information to construct a holistic ecosystem framework modeling how water moves from the terrestrial to the aquatic ecosystems across the entire watershed; (3) analyze major water and nutrient cycles in the ecosystem to the influences of the inhabitant biomes; (4) integrate geomorphology, nutrient, hydrology, water chemistry, and ecological sub-models to develop a comprehensive ecosystem model across the terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; and (5) model how the ecosystem reacts to different environmental change scenarios and perform risk assessment as a decision tool for policy makers to explore various management options in the future.永續經營管理淡水河流域生態系統模型環境變遷氣候變遷土地利用變遷地理資訊系統人工智慧技術動態系統分析Sustainable ManagementThe Danshuei River WatershedEcosystem ModelingEnvironmental ChangesClimate ChangeLanduse ChangeGeographic Information System (GIS)Artificial Intelligence (AI)System Dynamics