2009-04-212024-05-17https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/684117摘要：臺灣由於氣候及地形影響，易因颱風、豪雨而造成淹水災害，造成人民生命及財產損失，為使各級政府對於水災災害預防、應變等工作有所參考，災害防救法第22條第7款規定：「為減少災害發生或防止災害擴大，各級政府應依權責實施下列事項：‧‧‧七 以科學方法進行災害潛勢、危險度及境況模擬之調查分析，並適時公布其結果。‧‧‧」。全台第一次辦理淹水潛勢圖更新工作，起於行政院國家災害防救科技中心(前國家科學委員會防災國家型科技計畫辦公室)在民國88年起製作全省各縣市之淹水潛勢圖，至今已有7、8年，現配合內政部「全國數值高程更新」工作之完成，實有必要辦理淹水潛勢圖更新工作，以作為各級政府再行審視各水災災害防救計畫之用。 水利署為進行本次全面更新工作，已先行制訂「淹水潛勢圖製作及更新作業暫行規範」作為基礎，將分年分區（縣市及流域）辦理更新工作。本計畫將以「淡水河流域及台北市、台北縣、桃園縣與基隆市」為範圍辦理更新。淹水潛勢圖更新方法除依據「淹水潛勢圖製作及更新作業暫行規範」辦理更新工作，並以一維水理模式進行河道洪水演算；以水文分析資料建立定量降雨與頻率分析。定量降雨包括日雨量200公釐、350公釐、450公釐及600公釐；2日雨量450公釐、600公釐、750公釐及900公釐；3日雨量750公釐、900公釐、1050公釐及1200公釐。頻率年應包括連續降雨24小時、48小時以及72小時之1.1年、2年、5年、10年、20年、25年、50年、100年、200年及500年等。 本計畫預期完成淡水河流域及台北市、台北縣、桃園縣與基隆市等地區淹水潛勢相關之基本資料蒐集、整理後，執行降雨之頻率分析與空間分佈分析。最後完成淡水河流域及台北市、台北縣、桃園縣與基隆市之淹水潛勢圖更新工作，以提供各級政府水災防救工作、適用性檢討與未來尚須加強之建議。 <br> Abstract: This project was based on the results of “The renewal of national digital terrain data”, which were completed by the Ministry of Interior, to reproduce the potential inundation maps (PIMs) following the analysis process of“The temporary codes for producing and renewing the PIM,”and to be references to the government when revising the flood defense projects. The results of the project not only provide references to the governance of basin but can also be applied on the pre-warning system of rainfall to promote efficiency of the disaster defense. The studied regions included Tan-shui River, Taipei and Kee-Lung city, Taipei county, and Tao-Yuan county. Frequency analysis of precipitation, spatial and temporal analysis of rainfall, and evaluation of rain gauge net are performed for building rainfall-runoff model of watershed that links to river routing model for river overflow calculation. Then, based on the results of rainfall-runoff simulation, river overflow calculation, and tidal analysis, potential inundation simulation is performed for constructing rainfall-inundation early warning modules. The PIM reflects the possible inundation under specific circumstances and hydrologic events. The input data for the numerical model must be selected carefully according to the demands and purposes. Different input data result in different output from the simulation. The inundation maps from the project were used as references for flood defense and inundation pre-warning system, therefore the input data included 3, 6 and 24 hours cumulative rainfall in different return period. The project assessed the easily inundated area and built rainfall-inundation early warning modules according to the potential inundation simulations, as references to installation of the disaster defense facilities and inundation sensors. Furthermore, the PIMs of the precipitation with 24-hr duration of various return periods can help the organizations of disaster prevention in local governments to execute the emergency operation during flood disaster.淹水潛勢圖淡水河流域雨量預警Potential inundation mapTan-shui RiverRainfall forecasting and warming