2003-04-082024-05-16https://scholars.lib.ntu.edu.tw/handle/123456789/668158摘要：每年春季中國西北地區容易發生大範圍沙暴現象，其中一部分能影響台灣地區，導致能見度降低，造成本地居民呼吸系統與眼睛的不適感，甚至影響飛航安全，改變太陽輻射量與降水機制。統計資料顯示，大陸地沙塵暴的發生頻率在近幾十年內有逐漸增加的趨勢，而2001年更是觀測到32次之多。沙塵暴侵台次數在2000、2001、2002年也達每年7-9次之多。因此對沙塵暴影響的分析與預報有其必要與迫切性。 此研究擬針對去年發展的TAQM/kosa沙塵暴預報模式進行改善，以期更適用於台灣地區，並協助建立預警制度，及早預告民眾早做提防，並提供本署進行襲台沙塵暴密集觀測採樣時間之參考，以及沙塵暴健康效應評估之急診監測網之啟動。所發展的數值預報模式包括幾項主要功能：（1）中尺度動力模式，能模擬區域氣象場；（2）起沙模組，能模擬沙塵暴源區起沙狀態；（3）大氣氣膠物理化學模式，能模擬沙塵之傳送、擴散、沉降。本年計畫將改進起沙模組，並在模式中增加由降雨造成的濕除機制，如此方能有效的預報出大陸黃沙的沙塵量隨時間與空間的變化，及其傳送的路徑。同時擬增加對一般污染物的預報，以期協助判別監測資料中沙塵的所佔比例。 此研究團隊亦<br> Abstract: Large-scale dust storms originated at the Northeastern Chine frequently occur during springtime. Some of the elevated dust particle may be transported long distance through atmospheric circulation to the Taiwan area. The possibly effects of these atmospheric dust particles include the influence on public health, lowering the visibility and even causing aviation safety concerns, reducing solar radiation to the surface, and altering the precipitation processes. Due to its increasing frequency of occurrence during the past decade, it is essential to study the mechanisms controlling the transport of yellow dust to Taiwan, and develop forecasting capability for early warning. The elevation and transport of atmospheric dust particles is controlled by the surface conditions of the source region (deserts) and the regional weather patterns. The goal of this study is to develop a modeling system that can accurately simulation the elevation (deflation) of dusts as well as their subsequent transport in the regional scales, and to help establishing an early-warning system for the Environmental Protection Agency for alerting the public regarding to their health, and to provide lead time of operation for the dust-sampling group and health effect evaluation group. The specific goals of this project include: (1) development of dust storm forecasting models suitable for use in the East Asia region and Taiwan area, this include a TAQM/dust model and NAQPM/dust model; (2) daily watch of the dust storm events by analysis of the synoptic weather patterns and observation data relevant to Asia dust storms; (3) evaluation of the time, duration, area extent and concentration of possible events of dust reaching Taiwan, so as to assist the issue of warnings by the operation center of EPA; (4) built a web site of atmospheric dust forecasting, using calendar-style data bank in exhibiting the movies of dust storm simulation and analysis data. Based on an overall evaluation of last year’s project, improvements such as the modification of dust deflation scheme and the inclusion of wet scavenging process will be included in this year’s forecasting model. In addition, a finer grid resolution will be applied in an attempt to further improve the accuracy of the forecast.沙塵暴大氣沙塵模式台灣空氣品質模式Dust stormatmospheric dust modelTAQM.